10:30 AM (Tues) | ***Strong thunderstorms possible mid-day/afternoon with gusty winds and hail the primary threats…very cold once again by late tonight with at or below freezing overnight lows***
Paul Dorian
A vigorous wave of energy aloft will combine with cold air in the upper atmosphere and a strong surface cold front to increase chances for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor later today. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
A very active weather pattern continues for much of the nation aided by a continuing influx of cold air masses from Canada into the central and eastern US. A strong cold front at the leading edge of the next cold air outbreak will arrive this afternoon in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and there can be strong thunderstorm activity with very gusty winds and hail the primary threats. Much colder air will push into the region in the overnight hours riding in on stiff NW winds and temperatures in many suburban locations by early tomorrow will once again be at or slightly below the freezing mark. Multiple chances of rain will follow in coming days and there will be additional cold air outbreaks for the central and eastern US - perhaps into the early part of May.
The arrival of the cold front later today will likely be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms along the I-95 corridor. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
The combination of strong energy in the upper atmosphere, cold air aloft and a strong surface cold front will increase the chances for strong thunderstorms in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor between about noon and 4 PM following morning scattered showers. The cold air aloft will be a main factor in the relatively high chance for hail in any thunderstorm that does develop later today as the freezing level will be quite low allowing for the icing of water droplets in updrafts ahead of and along the cold frontal boundary zone. The front will sweep off the east coast by early tonight and winds will become quite noticeable from a northwesterly direction as the next cold air outbreak arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures by early tomorrow will be down to freezing or slightly below in many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor and they’ll stay well below-normal on Wednesday (current normal highs/lows: Philly 66/46, DC 68/48, NYC 63/46).
A much colder air mass will follow the passage of the strong cold front with temperatures dropping to near the freezing mark along the I-95 corridor by early tomorrow. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Looking ahead, the overall active weather pattern will likely persist as long as cold air outbreaks continue to drop into the central and eastern US from central Canada. Indications are that this type of pattern is likely to continue into at least early May leading to multiple storms in coming days and the potential for new severe weather outbreaks. After a chilly day on Wednesday, the next storm in a series of storms is likely to impact the Mid-Atlantic region from Thursday into Friday. Given the recent rainfall and the expectation of some soaking rain with this next system, the concern for localized flooding will probably rise in the Mid-Atlantic region later this week. Yet another storm is likely to follow over the weekend with more rain possible in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from Saturday into Sunday. Following the weekend storm, yet another cold air outbreak is likely to reach the Mid-Atlantic region after dropping southeastward from Canada and across the Great Lakes and there is no sign of sustained warm weather through at least the beginning of May.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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