12:00 PM | *Intensifying storm to rock the middle of the nation with tremendous wind gusts of 80-100 mph…power outages already on the rise...severe weather, record warmth...blizzard-like conditions*
Paul Dorian
Winds will be the biggest factor with this intensifying storm across a large portion of the nation’s midsection with 100+ mph gusts possible. The strong wind field shown on this plot at 850 millibars should help with extreme wind gusts being easily reached with any convection. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The strong storm that pounded California in recent days with heavy coastal rains and substantial higher-elevation snows is pushing into the mid-section of the nation today and it will be a high impact event over a large area. First and foremost, this low pressure system will intensify rapidly today and its pressure gradient field will tighten dramatically resulting in tremendous wind gusts of as high as 80-100 mph. Power outages have already been on the rise in the Southwest US and are likely to increase markedly later today and tonight as the storm intensifies and pushes to the north and east.
In addition, as this system pushes northeast from northeastern Colorado towards northeastern Minnesota, there will likely be a severe weather outbreak in its warm sector including the threat of tornadoes. Record high temperatures are likely to be set on the warm side of the storm over a large area. In the cold sector to the north and west of the storm, blizzard-like conditions will form later today and tonight with the combination of heavy, accumulating snow and tremendous winds. Heavy snow fell from this storm system during the past few days from the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California to higher elevation locations of the interior western states such as Utah.
A severe weather outbreak is likely later today in the warm sector of the powerful storm with a focus on such areas as eastern Nebraska, Iowa and southern Minnesota. The severe weather threat will include the possibility of tornadic activity. Map courtesy NOAA/SPC
Details
The ingredients are coming together for a high impact event that will affect a large portion of the nation’s mid-section from the Southwest US to the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This storm will result in a myriad of hazards ranging from accumulating snow to tornadoes to dust storms (CO, KS), but the most widespread impact may come from its winds which can gust to as high as 80-100 mph (reports already of 107 mph wind gust in Lamar, Colorado and 77 mph in Lupton, Arizona). The ingredients that are coming together include strong, “negatively-tilted” upper-level low pressure, a surge of record warmth on the front side, and an incoming cold air intrusion from the northwest. Ahead of the storm and its associated cold front, temperatures will surge to some 25-40 degrees above normal in the Plains, Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes with numerous record highs likely to be set over a large area. The severe weather threat later today will be greatest in the area extending from northeastern Kansas to western Wisconsin. This severe weather outbreak will include the threat of tornadoes with perhaps the highest probabilities in Iowa and southern Minnesota.
Blizzard-like conditions by tonight in the cold sector of this powerful storm in places like western Minnesota, eastern Dakotas. Heavy snow has already been produced by this storm from California to the interior higher elevation locations of the western US. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
In the cold sector (i.e., to the north and west of the path of the storm), accumulating snow is likely later today and tonight across the region extending from the Colorado Rockies to northern Nebraska to the Dakotas and Minnesota. Given the expected extreme winds, blizzard-like conditions are likely by later today/tonight; especially, in places like western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. By early tomorrow, this relatively fast-moving system will reach southern Canada, but, unfortunately, much damage is likely to be left behind in the nation’s mid-section. Elsewhere, the eastern third of the nation will largely be unaffected by this powerful storm system and is continuing to enjoy a quiet and relatively mild weather pattern.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
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