10:50 AM | ***Powerful cold front sweeping across the nation…record warmth and very windy ahead of it…sharply colder and very windy behind it…another warm up comes this weekend/early next week***

A powerful cold front will pass through the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday evening and this will result in a sharp drop off of temperatures. There is the chance that this quick drop in temperatures can result in a changeover of rain to snow later Wednesday evening…even as far south and east as the I-95 corridor. Winds will become very strong in the hours ahead of the arrival of the cold front and for several hours behind its passage. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Overview

It turns noticeably milder today in the Mid-Atlantic region after a chilly start to the day…even milder weather is coming for Tuesday and Wednesday. In fact, the eastern 2/3rds of the nation will experience above-normal temperatures with the most dramatic departures-from-normal focused today on the central states where some spots can exceed averages by 35+ degrees. The warm-up will come to an abrupt end on Tuesday across the central US as the result of the passage of a powerful cold front and it will end rather dramatically in the Mid-Atlantic region as well on Wednesday evening. This west-to-east moving cold front can produce some severe thunderstorm activity on Tuesday in the Midwest/Ohio Valley and - with the sharp drop off in temperatures - the rain is likely to change briefly to snow in many spots. There can even be a changeover from rain-to-snow for a brief time in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor on Wednesday evening following the passage of the strong cold front. The cold air mass that pushes in following the passage of the front will not last too long in the central or eastern US. In fact, another warm-up will commence by week’s end in the central US and by later this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region.

Temperatures on Monday afternoon will climb to levels that are way above-normal in the central US and not only will daily high temperature records be in jeopardy, but so will monthly temperature records in some spots. Map courtesy NOAA, weathermodels.com (Dr. Ryan Maue, Twitter)

Details

A real taste of spring (or even early summer) will come to much of the eastern 2/3rds of the nation during the next few days with the largest departures from normal on Monday afternoon centered out over the central US. In fact, some spots in the heartland will see temperatures climb some 35 degrees above-normal for late February and numerous daily high temperature records may be in jeopardy. In fact, some spots could see their all-time high temperature records for the month of February fall to the wayside in this unseasonably warm spell of weather. For example, temperatures across Iowa this afternoon can peak in the middle 70’s potentially leading to daily high temperature records and perhaps even a few monthly records.

All of this will change drastically on Tuesday in the central US following the passage of a powerful cold front that will cause rain to change to snow in many areas and the sharp drop in temperatures will result in wind chill values on Tuesday night that may drop to below-zero levels in places like Iowa…quite an amazing turnaround form today’s highs in the middle 70’s. Another example of the dramatic change in the temperatures during the next 24 hours will take place in St. Louis, Missouri where actual air temperatures could drop from the 80’s to the 20’s over a 12-hour period. The largest 24-hour temperature change in St. Louis weather history [since 1874] is a drop of 66° from 78° to 12° on November 11-12, 1911 (the infamous “Blue Norther” of 11/11/11); info courtesy Chris Martz (Twitter).

The west-to-east moving strong cold front will push into the Midwest/Ohio Valley on Tuesday and it could spark some severe thunderstorm activity. Map courtesy NOAA/SPC

This same cold front will barrel into the Midwest/Ohio Valley on Tuesday and there can be an outbreak of severe thunderstorm activity with the clash of air masses featuring much colder-than-normal conditions to the west and much warmer-than-normal to the east. On Wednesday, this powerhouse cold front will close in on the eastern seaboard. Temperatures are likely to climb into the 60’s in much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, winds will become very strong and potentially damaging, and there will be occasional showers, maybe even a strong thunderstorm or two. By the early evening hours, the cold front will sweep to the east coast, winds will remain strong and potentially damaging, and temperatures will drop off sharply in the Mid-Atlantic region. There is a chance that rain changes to snow for a brief time following the passage of the front – even into the immediate I-95 corridor – and Thursday’s high temperatures will be far below those of Tuesday or Wednesday.

A strong cold front will move from west-to-east on Wednesday and there can be a brief changeover from rain-to-snow in the Mid-Atlantic region following its passage…even into the immediate I-95 corridor. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

The cold shot on the back side of this strong cold front will be rather short-lived. Temperatures will rebound dramatically in the central states by Friday and Saturday and then in the Mid-Atlantic region by the second half of the weekend. In fact, temperatures are likely to be well above-normal in the Mid-Atlantic region for at least the 3-day period from Sunday through Tuesday of next week. And similar to the unfolding scenario this week, the warm-up later next week should come to an end with the passage of a strong west-to-east moving cold front…but that will happen after spring fever has affected many people in the central and eastern US.  

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube

Video discussion: