Historically weak solar cycle 24 continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum. There have already been 11 spotless days during 2017 and this follows 32 spotless days that occurred during the latter part of 2016. The blank look to the sun will increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading up to the next solar minimum - probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020. By one measure, the current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980. One of the impacts of low solar activity is the increase of cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere and this has some important consequences.
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There have been many occasions in the past in which floods have followed droughts in California and this recent time period is yet another example. In California, incredible amounts of rain have piled up in recent weeks across low-lying areas of the state, mountains of snow have accumulated in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains - and more is on the way. After a couple days with a break in the action, another storm is likely to arrive in northern California by later Wednesday and continue into early Thursday. After that, a second and very intense storm looks like it will slam the entire state by the end of the work week with southern California likely being especially hard hit with not just heavy rain, but also high wind, possible power outages and flash flooding.
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Our “January thaw” period is about to come to an end in the Mid-Atlantic region. A colder weather pattern will unfold over the next few days – set off by a significant stratospheric warming event near the North Pole - and it will result in rather sustained cold for the region. In fact, numerous recent years (2007, 2010, 2013, 2015) that featured major stratospheric warming events during the latter part of January all generally featured significantly colder-than-normal months of February in the eastern US.
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While the weather around here so far this winter has not been too newsworthy in terms of precipitation and temperatures, what has been going on in California and Europe has been quite amazing. There has been talk in recent years that this latest drought in California was going to be different this time and more of a “permanent” drought and there was also some talk that European winters would soon be lacking in snow – to say that both of these ideas are being seriously challenged this winter is quite an understatement. In California, incredible amounts of rain have piled up in recent days across low-lying areas of the state, mountains of snow have accumulated in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains - and much more is on the way. Meanwhile, Europe has experienced severe cold and substantial snow in recent weeks - and much more is about to punish that continent.
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Extremely cold weather has not only gripped much of the US during the past couple of days, but severe cold has hit Europe as well with widespread consequences including power and water outages, cut off villages, frozen rivers and lakes, and, unfortunately, numerous deaths.
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The drought in California has lessened in severity this year and significant rainfall over the next couple of days should continue to improve overall conditions. A major storm will bring another round of drought-denting rain to much of the western US over the next few days and this will add to recent rainfall that has helped to ease drought conditions across much of California. In fact, flash flooding is a near term threat in California from this storm and there is a risk of mudslides in areas that experienced wildfires earlier this year. Drenching rain from this upcoming storm will first arrive in southern Oregon and northern California late Friday and then it’ll push southward into southern sections of the state including LA and San Diego by early Saturday morning.
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VENCORE WEATHER FEATURED ON WTKI RADIO; Paul Dorian, Vencore meteorologist, was interviewed on WTKI Radio in Huntsville, AL. Listen to the interview here.
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Whether you’re talking about major (category 3, 4 or 5) hurricanes or tornadoes, there is good news this year for the US in that - similar to most recent years - these extreme weather-related events are down across the nation compared-to-normal. In fact, in the case of tornadoes, we are on pace for one of the quietest years in the last decade and with respect to land falling major hurricanes in the US, an unprecedented streak in the record-keeping era continues through yet another tropical season.
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Sunspot counts have just reached their lowest level since 2011. The sun has been completely spotless on 23 days in 2016 and the blank look is increasing in frequency as it heads towards the next solar minimum. The next solar minimum is expected to be deep and extended - probably reached around 2019 or 2020. The current solar cycle is the 24th since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began and it is the weakest in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Low solar activity is known to have consequences on Earth’s weather and climate and it also is well correlated with an increase in cosmic rays that reach the upper part of the atmosphere.
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September was well above normal in the Mid-Atlantic region (PHL +4.4°, DC +5.0°, NYC +3.8°), October turned out above-normal as well (PHL +2.9°, DC +3.6°, NYC +1.0°); however, there are signs for a major temperature pattern flip during the middle and latter parts of November that will bring dramatic changes to the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions. In fact, this expected upcoming pattern flip to colder that was discussed in detail in the recently posted Vencore Weather Winter Outlook, may very well stick around for awhile and lead us right into a colder-than-normal winter season in the Mid-Atlantic region. The month of December is likely to be a far cry from the unusually warm weather that we experienced a year ago and the period from Thanksgiving-to-Christmas could be very interesting indeed.
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