Mount Agung on the Indonesian island of Bali is showing increasing signs of heading towards a full-scale eruption. For the last several months, Bali’s largest volcano Mount Agung has been rocked by hundreds of earthquakes and in recent days has begun to spew ash and smoke high up into the atmosphere over this tropical island. If there is indeed a major eruption in this part of the world, it could have a significant impact on global temperatures for up to a couple of years. Mount Agung is one of more than 120 active volcanoes across Indonesia in the so-called Pacific “ring of fire”.
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While we are celebrating a chilly Thanksgiving Day in the Mid-Atlantic region, Summit Station in Greenland will experience high temperatures around -40°F which continues the very cold and well-below normal trend for the month of November. Summit Station (also known as Summit Camp) is a high-altitude (10,551 feet) year-round research station in central Greenland and its exact coordinates actually can change since the ice sheet underneath is often on the move. In addition to the bitter cold, snow and ice accumulation throughout Greenland has been running at the high end of normal since the fall of 2016 - at times at or near record levels - and NASA/MODIS satellite imagery reveals significant growth in the Petermann Glacier from a low point reached five years ago. One of the important reasons for closely monitoring the snow and ice buildup on Greenland is that this region can be an important cold air source for the central and eastern US during the upcoming winter season.
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The sun is blank again today and this marks the 70th day of the year in which there have been no visible sunspots which makes up nearly a quarter of the time in 2017. Historically weak solar cycle 24 continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum. The last solar minimum was historically long and deep lasting from 2008 to 2010. The blank look to the sun will increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading up to the next solar minimum - probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020. By one measure, the current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980. One of the impacts of low solar activity is the increase of cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere and this, in turn, can impact clouds on Earth. In addition, there is reason to believe that low solar activity can play an important role in winter weather conditions in the central and eastern US as it is well-correlated with more frequent "high-latitude blocking" events.
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Three important cold air sources for the central and eastern US in the winter season include Canada, Greenland and Siberia and two of these areas have had quite an impressive increase in snowpack in recent weeks and the third is about to receive widespread accumulations. As the snowpack builds up in these particular areas this time of year, cold air masses are very likely to follow as the nights grow longer going into winter season.
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Bali is an Indonesian island known for its volcanic mountains, beaches and rice paddies. For the last month or so, Bali’s largest volcano Mount Agung has been rocked by hundreds of earthquakes and in recent days that number has spiked to nearly 1,000 per day. In addition, white steam is now billowing out of the Bali volcano and this in combination with the increasing number of earthquakes suggests that a major eruption could be imminent. As a precaution, some 180,000 people have been evacuated from the surrounding area during the past few weeks. If there is a major eruption in this part of the world, it could have a significant impact on global temperatures for a few years.
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Beneath Yellowstone National Park lies a supervolcano that can become primed for an eruption in decades rather than the millennia that was previously thought. The odds of an eruption are very small, but scientists have discovered that conditions that lead to super eruptions can emerge within the typical life span of a human. A full-blown eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano would have up to 2000 times the power of the Mount St. Helens eruption of 1980 and would likely cover the US in a thick layer of ash and send the Earth into a volcanic winter.
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Earlier this year, there were signs that a weak El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean could continue through the fall and even into the upcoming winter season, but there is now substantial agreement amongst numerous computer forecast models that La Nina conditions are likely to become established over the next couple of months and current observations back this notion. La Nina is a naturally occurring oceanic cycle that produces colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean whereas El Nino is associated with warmer-than-normal SSTs. The formation of La Nina in the tropical Pacific Ocean will likely have important ramifications around the world including significant impacts on the upcoming winter season, next summer’s tropical season, and global temperatures.
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Arctic sea ice extent has likely just reached its low point of the melting season and is above levels from 2012 and 2007 at this same time of year. Arctic sea ice generally shrinks every year during the spring and summer seasons until it reaches its minimum yearly extent around this time of year. Sea ice then typically regrows during the frigid fall and winter seasons when the sun is below the horizon in the Arctic. The apparent end to this year’s melting season in the Arctic is right around the mid-point of September.
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The high temperature forecast in Death Valley, California for the next couple of days is an impressive 120°F or so, but this is rather pedestrian compared to the all-time record high that occurred on this date one hundred and four years ago. On July 10th, 1913, the weather observer at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley recorded a high temperature of 134°F. One hundred and four years later, this is still the highest air temperature ever reliably recorded on Earth. In addition to this all-time and worldwide high temperature record, the year of 1913 produced numerous other extreme weather events.
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While we were celebrating our Independence Day on July 4th, Summit Station in Greenland may have experienced the coldest July temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere at -33°C (-27.4°F). Much of Greenland has been colder-than-normal for the year so far and has had record or near record levels of accumulated snow and ice since the fall of last year. The first week of this month was especially brutal in Greenland resulting in the record low July temperature and it also contributed to an uptick in snow and ice extent - despite the fact that it is now well into their summer season.
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