The weekend is shaping up to be quite decent for this time of year with high temperatures likely reaching into the 60's on Saturday and then near the 60 degree mark on Sunday. The mild and quiet weather pattern won’t last too long, however. Colder air should return to the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week and there are signs for a storm (or possibly two) to ride up along the eastern seaboard between Tuesday and Thursday. It appears the I-95 corridor is likely to be near the rain/snow line during that period and odds favor a mixed bag of precipitation here with some snow accumulations possible.
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We are going to continue to experience relatively quiet weather over the next few days compared to our recent active weather pattern. In fact, the weekend is shaping up to be quite mild for this time of year with high temperatures on Saturday climbing to near 60 degrees and likely well up in the 50's on Sunday. Looking ahead to next week, however, it looks like the quieter weather pattern will come to an abrupt end. There are signs for a major storm to affect the eastern US by the middle of next week, but many details still have to be ironed out to determine precipitation type and amounts in the I-95 corridor - odds currently favor a mixed bag. This major storm will actually be the beginning of a relatively cold period from late February into mid-March as winter definitely has some punch left.
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We deserve a break in the recent active weather pattern and there is, in fact, a quieter period coming for the next several days including a relatively mild weekend. However, this break should not be interpreted as the “end of winter” as that is quite likely not going to be the case. In fact, there are many signs for an important winter storm by the middle of next week in the eastern US which could generate of lot of snow, sleet and rain.
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Much quieter weather is in store for the area during the second half of the week with only a couple of weak frontal systems to deal with. A weak cold front will cross the region late tonight and then high pressure should build in later Thursday into Friday. A weak warm front will then push through the region on Friday night paving the way for a mild weekend. Looking ahead, don’t get too used to the quiet weather as there could be another winter storm to deal with next Tuesday or Wednesday and sustained cold air will be an issue.
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The following combination could very well produce “black ice” late tonight/early tomorrow in the I-95 corridor; primarily, in the northern and western suburbs of Philly, NYC and just in time for the morning commute:
1) temperatures drop to near freezing late tonight,
2) many surfaces will remain moist in the overnight hours following today’s heavy rain as it will not be a classic “drying” pattern following the passage of a frontal system,
3) heavy rain from today washes away the “protective” salt on the roads
4) finally, there are still some isolated patches of snow/ice that will continue to melt away.
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A coastal (warm) front pushed in from the east during the wee hours of the morning and temperatures jumped about ten degrees in a very short time. In fact, temperatures have now risen more than thirty degrees in many areas since early Sunday morning. First there was the accumulating snow phase of this storm on Monday, then the ice buildup last night, and today will feature the heavy rain and strong winds side of the storm. Rain will fall heavily at times through the morning and there can even be a rumble of thunder along with strong wind gusts. Given the frozen nature of the ground – at least just below surface level – much of today’s rainfall will runoff instead of soaking in and this could cause some flooding issues later in the day. Looking ahead, it looks like a mild weekend with temperatures approaching the 55 degree mark on both days.
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Something about President’s Day and snowstorms…snow is now rapidly closing in on the Philly and NYC metro regions and is actually diminishing just to the south and west of DC. That is not the end of this storm by any means in the DC metro region - just a lull in the action. There was a good thumping of snow on the order of 3-6 inches in the DC metro region this morning (highest amounts south, lowest to the north) and it'll be pretty sporadic for the next few hours. Farther to the northeast in SE PA, New Jersey and New York City, the snow will become heavier and steadier over the next couple of hours and it will stick rather rapidly on untreated surfaces as temperatures remain well below freezing and travel conditions will deteriorate quickly. Those slick travel conditions will last in all areas through the afternoon hours and also during the evening commute.
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A significant storm will impact the region over the next couple of days as it pulls out of the southeastern states and rides up the eastern seaboard. Snow will redevelop by mid-morning across the region, but as milder air is drawn in from off the ocean, there will be a transition later today or early tonight from the snow to sleet and freezing rain and ultimately the precipitation should become ordinary rain by late tonight or early Tuesday. As the storm pulls away later tomorrow, there is a chance that precipitation changes back to snow or snow showers before ending late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Snowfall estimates before the changeover fall in the 3-6 inch range with the higher amounts in that range to the north and west of the metro area and the lesser amounts to the south and east of the District. Looking ahead, it should turn much milder by the weekend.
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After today’s extreme cold, attention will turn to the southeastern US early Monday, President’s Day, as low pressure will organize down there and then ride up in an inland track parallel to the eastern seaboard on Monday night and Tuesday. It appears that this storm will have a lot of moisture available to it and should produce a potpourri of precipitation types in the I-95 corridor ranging from accumulating snow and ice to ordinary rain and some of the rain can be heavy. Despite the expected changeover to plain rain, it looks like a significant buildup of snow and ice will take place on the front end of the storm. Preliminary snowfall estimates for the I-95 corridor are 2-5 inches with higher amounts in that range well to the north and west of the metro regions and lower amounts in the big cities. As far as the cold this morning, Central Park in New York City dropped to -1 degrees which was the coldest there since 1994. Boston plunged to -9 degrees which was the coldest there since 1957. Philly’s low temperature held at 8 above, but most suburbs to the north and west fell to between zero and 5 above this morning.
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Get ready – the next five days will bring us the worst that winter has to offer from accumulating snow tonight to extreme cold and dangerous wind chills this weekend to accumulating snow and ice early next week before a possible transition to plain rain as a major storm pulls up along the eastern seaboard.
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