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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DC

12:50 PM | **Severe weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic late Sunday…tropical storm threat continues for Florida**

Paul Dorian

It looks like it’ll be quite an active period in the Mid-Atlantic region as we close out the weekend with the threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather including possible supercell thunderstorm development and tornado activity. At nearly the same time, Florida is likely going to have to brace for a potential tropical storm which could generate flooding rainfall in that part of the country by early next week.  While Florida is quite a distance away from the Mid-Atlantic region, there may actually be an important connection between the potential tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico and the severe weather threat around here.  

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7:00 AM | *More rainfall on Sunday some of which can be heavy at times and there can be a strong-to-severe thunderstorm*

Paul Dorian

Scattered showers are likely here today for the mid-day and afternoon hours and there can be a thunderstorm or two later in the day.  All of this activity today is associated with a frontal system working its way through the region and there can be brief downpours with any thunderstorm that forms this afternoon.  The weekend will feature slight improvement for Saturday with warm conditions and the chance for some sunshine, but a few showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out and then it’ll go back downhill for Sunday.  Copious amounts of moisture are headed our way for Sunday and we’ll experience occasional rain as we close out the weekend - maybe even a strong-to-severe thunderstorm - and some of the rain is likely to be on the heavy side.  The weather should clear here early next week, but we’ll turn noticeably cooler by mid-week.  Elsewhere, a tropical storm may form in the Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend or early next week and it could cut a path right across Florida potentially bringing with it some flooding rainfall. 

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7:00 AM | Back-and-forth pattern...showers/storms later tonight/tomorrow and Sunday...pretty decent today and Saturday

Paul Dorian

High pressure to our north will continue to control the weather today, but a cold frontal system will cross the region on Friday and bring with it scattered showers and thunderstorms later tonight and tomorrow with brief downpours possible.  After a decent beginning to the weekend, moisture will head north along the coast on Sunday and also to the east from the Midwest resulting in a "squeeze play" around here with occasional rain, maybe a strong thunderstorm or two, and some of the rain be heavy at times as we close out the weekend.  

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7:00 AM | Pretty decent for the mid-week...next front arrives on Friday

Paul Dorian

High pressure to our north will edge into the area today and continue to control the weather on Thursday. There is enough instability in the atmosphere to allow for the possibility of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, but most, if not all, of the time should be rain-free.   A cold frontal system will cross the region on Friday with possible showers and thunderstorms.  After a pretty decent beginning to the weekend, moisture will head north along the coast on Sunday bringing with it the threat for more showers and possible thunderstorms as we close out the weekend and begin the new work week. 

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7:00 AM | Summer-like pattern continues well into the holiday weekend

Paul Dorian

The summer-like weather pattern will continue into the Memorial Day holiday weekend as high pressure dominates in this part of the country.  There can be scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as we close out the work week along with high temperatures well up in the 80’s all along the I-95 corridor.  The weekend will feature partly-to-mostly sunny, skies, high temperatures in the 80’s, and primarily rain-free conditions.  A back door cold front will make an attempt to approach the area from the north late in the weekend and it should turn somewhat cooler on Monday with the chance for showers and thunderstorms on the holiday. 

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7:00 AM | Summer-like weather continues into the weekend

Paul Dorian

Today will feature more in the way of summer-like temperatures and overall humidity levels will begin to climb to more noticeable levels.  There can be scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon; primarily, to the N and W of the District, and then a bit more widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely for tomorrow afternoon.  The weekend will feature partly-to-mostly sunny skies on each day with high temperatures in the 80’s and generally rain-free conditions.  By Monday, Memorial Day, clouds will dominate and it’ll turn somewhat cooler along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms.  That threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday as well as abundant moisture across the Southeast US pushes slowly northward along the east coast.

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7:00 AM | Mid-summer conditions next couple days with highs flirting with the 90 degree mark

Paul Dorian

After a cool start to the month of May (DCA: -4.5 degrees), the next couple of days will be a rude awakening as we'll skip right to mid-summer conditions with soaring temperatures and increasing humidity.  High pressure will edge into the region today and the result will be plenty of sunshine and temperatures will respond quickly by climbing to the upper 80’s - perhaps even reaching the 90 degree mark in a few spots.  It'll stay summer-like for the next couple of days and humidity levels will become more noticeable.  After a rain-free day today, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible tomorrow afternoon and then there is likely to be more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon.  The weekend will feature at least partial sunshine on both Saturday and Sunday with generally rain-free conditions and high temperatures in the low-to-mid 80's.  It should turn cooler on Monday with high temperatures likely confined to the 70's under mainly cloudy skies and there will be the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

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12:30 PM | Cooler conditions likely for Memorial Day following first stretch of summer-like weather

Paul Dorian

In our part of the world, cold frontal systems generally move in from the west passing through places like Chicago and Pittsburgh before they arrive here in the Mid-Atlantic region. However, there are occasions in which a cold front can slide through the Mid-Atlantic region by moving in a southwesterly direction down the Northeast US coastline; especially, during the late winter and spring season. These types of fronts are commonly referred to as “back door” cold fronts as they “sneak” in from the northeast as opposed to the usual “front door” type cold fronts that move in from the west. This time of year a “back door” cold front can make a huge difference in temperatures - suddenly replacing a very warm air mass with a chilly, damp flow of air. These fronts are characterized by a high pressure system to the north that can result in a wind shift to an easterly or northeasterly direction which around here is right off the ocean and the current sea surface temperatures are in the still chilly 50’s off of the New Jersey coastline.

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7:00 AM | Well into the 80's for the second half of the week and into the weekend...back door cold front could cool down it by Memorial Day

Paul Dorian

The atmosphere will be unstable enough today to allow for the slight possibility of more shower activity in the DC region; however, high pressure will edge in by tomorrow and the result will be plenty of sunshine on Wednesday along with temperatures soaring to the 80’s.  A few more weak disturbances will keep it somewhat unsettled around here during the latter part of the week and into the weekend, but it’ll stay very warm for this time of year and the humidity will even become noticeable.  There is the chance, however, that a back door cold front slips through late in the holiday weekend and, if so, it could turn much cooler by Monday, Memorial Day; especially, at the Eastern Shore.  

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