The latest GOES-13 satellite image shows a widespread area of deep convection over the Gulf of Mexico with heavy rains continuing over western Cuba where there has been significant flooding. Tropical Depression #9 is likely closing in on "tropical storm" status and it will be investigated this afternoon by NOAA hurricane hunters to better determine its actual current strength. All indications are that intensification will take place over the next couple of days as vertical wind shear over the system decreases. Heavy rain on the order of 6-12" is possible from this system across portions of central and northern Florida later this week.
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A cold front will approach the region late tomorrow and Thursday and it could set off some shower or thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region which has been quite dry in recent days. Following the frontal passage, comfortable weather will return for the rest of the work week and the Labor Day weekend looks quite nice as well. Meanwhile, the tropics are alive and well. One tropical system is closing in on the Carolinas and another is working its way into the Gulf of Mexico. The tropical system in the Gulf could intensity over the next few days and head towards the Gulf coast of Florida as a tropical storm or a hurricane by the latter part of the week.
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A weak cold front will arrive today, but it should not produce any rainfall in the area and skies will be mainly sunny. A stronger front arrives late Wednesday and it could produce some shower and thunderstorms activity in the mid-week period. Following the mid-week frontal passage, very comfortable weather will return for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, the tropics are alive and well. One tropical system is closing in on the Carolinas (tropical depression 8) and another is working its way into the Gulf of Mexico (tropical depression 9). The system headed towards the Gulf of Mexico could intensity over the next few days and then move towards the Florida Panhandle region by the latter part of the week.
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A weak cold front will work its way through the region today and it should pass through on the dry side. The last day of the work week will turn out hot and humid, but the humidity levels should drop some later Saturday following the frontal passage. All in all, the weekend looks decent with very warm and rain-free conditions expected. Elsewhere, the news is good on the tropical scene. The tropical system known as 99L has remained disorganized thanks to some wind shear and its passing over the mountainous island of Hispaniola. Eventually, this system could enter the Gulf of Mexico which would likely lead to intensification, but for now it appears the main impact on Florida will just be some heavy rainfall.
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High pressure will build offshore today and a weak cold front will approach from the northwest. This front could set off a shower or thunderstorm at any time between late today and tomorrow evening as it slowly pushes through the region, but most of the time will be rain-free and the weekend looks dry. Meanwhile, the tropics remain active and one tropical system appears to be headed towards Florida and the Gulf of Mexico and it could have an impact there by the latter part of the weekend or the early part of next week. Currently, the system remains somewhat disorganized near the island of Hispaniola which has some mountainous terrain that should prevent any quick intensification.
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High pressure continues to dominate the weather scene today in the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll stay comfortably warm. A weak cold front approaches later in the week, but it could pass through the region on the dry side. High pressure will follow across the Northeast US for the weekend which is looking quite nice for this time of year. Meanwhile, the tropics are active and there are two systems that bear watching for the next week to 10 days. The first system will take a southern route and it could become a major player near Florida and/or the Gulf of Mexico by the early part of next week. In fact, this system has a chance to be the first hurricane to strike the state of Florida since October 2005 which would end their unprecedented hurricane drought. The second system, Gaston, is likely to intensify significantly; however, it is also likely to stay out-to-sea.
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High pressure continues to dominate the weather scene in the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures and humidity levels will remain on the comfortable side for the next couple of days. A weak cold front approaches later in the week, but it could pass through the region on the dry side. High pressure will follow across the Northeast US for the weekend.
Meanwhile, the tropics are quite active and there are two systems that bear watching for the next week to 10 days or so. The first system will take more of the southern route and it could become a player in the Caribbean Sea or near the Bahamas/Southeast US coastline by the latter part of the weekend whereas the second system that is farther out in the eastern Atlantic is likely to take more of a northern track and it will head in a direction towards the US east coast – just too early to say if it’ll ever reach it. The first system has a chance to end the hurricane drought in Florida where they amazingly haven't seen a hurricane of any intensity since 2005.
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A very comfortable air mass for this time of year has moved into the eastern US following a cold frontal passage and the next few days will feature pleasant temperatures and humidity levels. The next cold front will approach the area from the northwest at the end of the work week, but it'll be on the weak side. Elsewhere, the tropics are getting active and will be monitored closely as we slowly approach the climatological peak (mid-September) in tropical activity for the Atlantic Basin.
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The big weather story is that there is a very pleasant air mass headed to the eastern states for the early part of next week. High pressure will move across the region on Saturday and then a strong cold front approaches late Sunday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms on Sunday can be on the strong side and some of the rain can be heavy at times. Once that frontal system passes through the region, it’ll usher in very comfortable air for the first half of next week. In fact, high temperatures should primarily hold in the lower 80's during the first half of next week.
Elsewhere, the tropics are getting quite active as we slowly approach the climatological peak in tropical activity (i.e., mid-September) with numerous waves in the eastern Atlantic and over Africa. One such tropical wave will be closely monitored as it grinds its way towards the US mainland over the next several days. It is still too far away to tell if it will actually reach the US coastline, but that possibility is certainly on the table. Indeed, signs point to a strong hurricane not far from the east coast around the time August turns into September...stay tuned.
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The worst of the hot weather is now over and high temperatures into the weekend should hold at around 90 degrees or below. By early next week, it could turn even cooler with high temperatures likely confined to near the 80 degree mark in the DC metro region. There will be a few disturbances around that can produce more in the way of showers and thunderstorms, but much of the time over the next few days will be rain-free.
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