3:20 PM | Top ten NYC (Central Park) snowstorms

1.    Feb 11-12, 2006    26.9”    
2.    Dec 26-27, 1947    25.8
3.    March 12-14, 1888    21.0
4.    Feb 25-26, 2010    20.9
5.    Jan 7-8, 1996    20.2
6.    Dec 26-27, 2010    20.0
7.    Feb 16-17, 2003    19.8
8.    Jan 26-27, 2011    19.0
9.    Jan 22-24, 1935    18.1, March 7-8, 1941 (tie)
10.   Dec 26, 1872    18.0

2:20 PM | 40th anniversary of the "Edmund Fitzgerald Storm"

[Colorized IR satellite image on November 10, 1975; courtesy University of Wisconsin, NOAA]

Discussion

Overview

Forty years ago on November 10th, 1975, a major storm over the Great Lakes helped to sink the SS Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior and all of its 29 crew members died. When launched on June 7, 1958, it was the largest ship on North America's Great Lakes, and she remains the largest to have sunk there. The Edmund Fitzgerald was in the worst possible location during the worst weather of the ferocious storm. The wind and waves from the west hit the freighter broadside as it tried to flee south to safety in Whitefish Bay. The Edmund Fitzgerald was loaded with about 26,000 tons of taconite pellets on Nov. 9, 1975, at Superior, Wisconsin and was bound for Detroit, Michigan.

The Storm

Storms on the Great Lakes can rival hurricanes in their intensity and the one that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald had sustained winds of 67 mph, gusts up to 86 mph, and waves reported up to 35 feet according to another vessel in the area that survived the storm. On November 8, 1975, a storm was brewing in the center part of the country and it headed northeastward towards the Great Lakes. On November 9 at 7 p.m. the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a gale warning for Lake Superior. The NWS predicted east to northeasterly winds during the night, shifting to NW to N by the afternoon of November 10. At approximately 10:40 p.m., the NWS revised its forecast for eastern Lake Superior to easterly winds becoming southeasterly the morning of the 10th. At about 2:00 am on November 10th the NWS upgraded the gale warning to a storm warning (winds 48-55 knots) with a prediction of "northeast winds 35 to 50 knots becoming northwesterly 28 to 38 knots on Monday, waves 8 to 15 feet".

[Surface map on November 10, 1975]

Around 2 a.m. on the 10th the captains of the Anderson – a second freighter caught in the storm that survived - and Edmund Fitzgerald discussed the threatening weather and decided to change their route. This safer route would take them northward, toward the coast of Canada. The northern route would protect them from the waves that the storm generated. At 3 am, the winds were reportedly coming from the northeast at 42 knots. The Anderson and Edmund Fitzgerald proceeded together with the Edmund Fitzgerald ahead of the Anderson. They had radio contact and the Anderson's radar located the position of the Edmund Fitzgerald. At 7 am onn the 10th, the intensifying storm passed over Marquette, Michigan and it started to move across Lake Superior.

On the afternoon of November 10th, an important wind shift took place. At 2:45 p.m. the winds had backed to NW and were still strong at 42 knots. Steady winds at 43 knots and waves of up to 12 and 16 feet were reported by the Anderson. At around this time, the Edmund Fitzgerald contacted the Anderson and reported "a fence rail down, two vents lost or damaged and a list” (a list is when a ship leans to one side). A shift of winds to the NW is very important, as this increased the fetch allowing large waves to build. The Edmund Fitzgerald and Anderson were no longer protected by land.

Late on the afternoon of the 10th, the captain of the Edmund Fitzgerald made radio contact with another ship, the Avafor, and reported that they "had a bad list, had lost both radars, and was taking heavy seas over the deck in one of the worst seas he had ever been in." Captain McSorely was a seasoned sailor of the Great Lakes with 44 years of experience and this incredibly was to be his final voyage before retirement. At 7 p.m., the Anderson made radio contact with the Edmund Fitzgerald and had her on their radar. When asked how the Edmund Fitzgerald was making out (around 7:10 pm) they replied "we are holding our own". Shortly afterwards the Edmund Fitzgerald disappeared from the Anderson's radar screen. No distress signals were ever issued. The Anderson reported the missing Edmund Fitzgerald to the U.S. Coast Guard. After conducting a heroic, but futile search of the area for survivors, the Anderson entered into the protection of Whitefish Bay from the stormy Lake Superior in the early hours of November 11. The Edmund Fitzgerald sank in 530 feet of water about 17 miles from Whitefish Bay, near the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan, and Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario.

Gordon Lightfoot’s song “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald”

The story of the Edmund Fitzgerald was made famous one year later by Canadian songwriter Gordon Lightfoot's song "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald" (1976, Moose Music, Ltd.). This song was a tribute to the ship wreck and to the men who lost their lives. Some of the lyrics of the song (below) made it sound as though the crew knew they were doomed. In reality, it is believed that the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald was very rapid and it is likely they did not know the seriousness of their condition. Indeed, after the wreck a severely damaged life boat was found and only part of the second. The condition of the lifeboats suggests that no attempts were made to leave the ship.

"...At seven p.m. a main hatchway caved in he said 'fellas it's bin good to know ya' The captain wired in he had water comin' in and the good ship and crew was in peril and later that night when 'is lights went out of sight came the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald"

More on Great Lakes shipping disasters

Incredibly, in the past 300 years, about 30,000 people have died in 10,000 shipwrecks on the Great Lakes. Other shipping disasters on the Great Lakes, in which weather played a role include: • Nov. 11, 1913: eighteen ships were lost killing 254 people. • Nov. 11-13, 1940: 57 men died when three freighters sank in Lake Michigan. • Nov. 18 1958: 33 men died on Lake Michigan with the sinking of the Carl D. Bradley. • Nov. 29, 1966: Daniel J. Morrell sank in Lake Huron killing the 28 crew members.

11:40 AM | Weather and the World Series

[Game winning celebration for the KC Royals at the end of Game 1; courtesy MLB, ESPN, Getty images]

Discussion

The World Series began last night in Kansas City, Missouri and it turned out to be the longest first game in Fall Classic history (14 innings, 5 hours 9 minutes) and there was ample entertainment along the way including a first-pitch inside the park home run for the Royals, a power outage that knocked the telecast off the air, and a game tying home run in the bottom of the ninth inning. The weather started off on the damp and chilly side, but, all in all, it did not play much of a factor in the marathon. This World Series is beginning slightly later than usual and should it go all 7 games, it would not end until Wednesday, November 4th. Despite some chilly weather expected in New York City this weekend for their three home games, the weather looks like it should not become a major issue this year – despite the late start. In fact, should the Series get back to Kansas City next week for games 6 and/or 7, high temperatures are liable to reach the 70’s on either day as a warm weather pattern sets up next week for much of the eastern 2/3rds of the country.

In terms of the coldest World Series games ever (and the records are sketchy pre-1970’s as Major League Baseball did not track weather records), the most memorable game occurred in Game 4 of the 1997 World Series in Cleveland, Ohio between the Indians and the Florida (now Miami) Marlins. The first-pitch temperature for that game was 38 degrees with a wind chill in the teens. Snow flurries fell throughout the game and ice patches actually formed on the infield. The first two games of that Series were played in Miami where temperatures were in the high 80’s. The second coldest game in recent history was the first game of the 1979 World Series in Baltimore, Maryland between the Orioles and Pirates with first-pitch temperatures right around 40 degrees and a steady, chilly rain falling.

Perhaps the most memorable game with respect to weather and the World Series is Game 5 of the 2008 World Series between the Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays. That game began on October 27th with 50-degree temperatures and a steady rain falling and was suspended in the 6th inning as the rain became too heavy. The game could not be resumed the next day as a powerful nor’easter continued to pound away on the Philadelphia region with a cold, steady rain and even several inches of accumulating snow in nearby Bucks County, PA. Finally, two days after the game began, Game 5 resumed on a cold night in Philly with first-pitch temperatures at 44 degrees along with a gusty northwest wind and the Phillies went on to clinch the title.

2:30 PM | The Great New England Hurricane of 1938

[Photo of Battery Park (Manhattan) during 1938 storm (courtesy National Weather Service)]

Discussion

On September 21, 1938, one of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history struck Long Island and Southern New England. The storm developed near the Cape Verde Islands on September 9, tracking across the Atlantic and up the Eastern Seaboard. The storm hit Long Island and Southern Connecticut on September 21, moving at a forward speed of 47 mph! Today marks the 77th anniversary of storm known as "The Great New England Hurricane of 1938" as well as "The Long Island Express" and the "Yankee Clipper". With no warning, the powerful category 3 hurricane (previously a category 5) slammed into Long Island and southern New England causing approximately 700 deaths and massive devastation to coastal cities and became the most destructive storm to strike the region in the 20th century. Little media attention was given to the powerful hurricane while it was out at sea as Europe was on the brink of war and the overriding story of the time. There was no advanced meteorological technology such as radar or satellite imagery to warn of the storm’s approach.

[Surface weather map, 9 a.m., September 21, 1938 (courtesy National Weather Service)]

The storm began on September 9th near the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic. About a week later, the captain of a Brazilian freighter sighted the storm near Puerto Rico and radioed a warning to the US Weather Bureau and it was expected that the storm would make landfall in south Florida where preparations frantically began. By September 19th, however, the storm suddenly changed direction and began moving north, parallel to the eastern seaboard. It had been many decades since New England had been hit by a substantial hurricane and few believed it could happen again. The storm picked up tremendous speed as it moved to the north following a track over the warm Gulf waters.

By the time the fast-moving storm approached Long Island, it was simply too late for a warning. In the middle of the afternoon on September 21st, the hurricane made landfall along the south shore of Long Island right around high tide when there was nearly a new moon (highest astronomical tide of the year). To make matters worse, this part of the country had just been through a long rainy period which saturated grounds before the arrival of this great storm. Waves as high as 40+ feet swallowed up coastal homes and homes that survived the storm surge succumbed to the damaging winds that reached 111-129 mph (lower to the west and higher to the east). By late afternoon, the hurricane raced northward at an amazing speed of nearly 50 mph crossing the Long Island Sound and reaching Connecticut ((Landsea et al. 2013, National Hurricane Center; Hurricane Research Division Re-Analysis Project). The storm surge of 14-18 feet above normal tide level inundated parts of Long Island and later the southern New England coastline. The waters in Providence harbor rapidly submerged the downtown area of Rhode Island’s capital under more than 13 feet of water and many people were swept away. The accelerating hurricane then continued northward at tremendous speed across Massachusetts generating great flooding in its path. In Milton, a town south of Boston, the Blue Hill Observatory recorded one of the highest wind gusts in history at an incredible 186 mph. Boston was hit hard and “Old Ironsides” – the historic ship USS Constitution – was torn from its moorings in Boston Navy Yard and suffered slight damage. Hundreds of other ships were not so lucky being completely demolished. The hurricane lost intensity as it passed over northern New England, but was still strong enough to cause widespread damage in Canada later that evening before finally dissipating over southeastern Canada later that night. All told, approximately 700 people were killed by the hurricane, 600 of them in Long Island and southern New England, 9000 homes and buildings were destroyed and 3000 ships were sunk or wrecked. It remains the most powerful and deadliest hurricane in recent New England history, eclipsed in landfall intensity perhaps only by the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 - the one storm by which all other storms are measured.

[Track of 1938 “Long Island Express” hurricane (courtesy National Weather Service)]

In terms of weather forecasting for this storm, while the US Weather Bureau did not predict a hurricane landfall, that decision was not without controversy as a junior forecaster named Charlie Pierce believed the storm would curve into Long Island and southern New England due to blocking high pressure to the northeast and trough of low pressure which would guide the storm inland in his opinion. Mr. Pierce was overruled by the chief forecaster, Charles Mitchell. Shortly thereafter, Charles Mitchell resigned and Charlie Pierce was promoted.