January will end and February will begin on a mild note here in the Mid-Atlantic region with temperatures well above normal for this time of year in the Sunday to Wednesday time period. High temperatures by Sunday afternoon should climb well up into the 40’s and those mild conditions will continue right through mid-week. In fact, Wednesday looks especially mild with temperatures likely 20+ degrees above normal in the Mid-Atlantic region (above). Snow should continue to melt around here at a pretty good clip given the expected (temporary) break from winter and that’s a good thing since there is the threat for a heavy rain event by the middle of next week. The potential heavy rain event will be produced by a powerful El Nino-enhanced storm and its associated strong cold frontal system that will cross the nation next week and have significant implications all along the way. Behind the storm, a widespread Arctic air outbreak will envelope much of the eastern half of the nation by Thursday and Friday of next week.
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One of the ways to monitor the potential for Arctic air outbreaks in the northern U.S. is to follow what is happening in the stratosphere over the polar region of the northern hemisphere. Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are large, rapid temperature rises in the winter polar stratosphere occurring primarily in the Northern Hemisphere. They have been found to often set off a chain of events in the atmosphere that ultimately lead to Arctic air outbreaks from northern Canada into the central and eastern U.S. Indeed, there is stratospheric warming taking place right now over portions of the polar region and another significant warm up in the upper part of the atmospheric is predicted ten days from now. This unfolding stratospheric warming event provides reason to believe that after a bit of a break in the winter weather pattern in the eastern U.S., cold air outbreaks will return in full force for much of February beginning as early as late next week.
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This week’s Arctic air outbreak is only the opening salvo. Old Man Winter was pretty embarrassed by his performance during December in the eastern half of the nation and is primed to make up for it with multiple Arctic blasts during the month of January and perhaps even considerably longer than that. The overall weather pattern underwent a significant change around New Year’s Day from the record-breaking warmth of December in much of the eastern half of the nation and the end result will be much more in the way of sustained cold air outbreaks. In fact, there are signs for widespread Arctic air next week with an initial shot arriving early in the week following a Sunday storm and then a reinforcing shot at mid-week. By the middle of next week, colder-than-normal conditions will extend from virtually coast-to-coast.
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