Today begins a stretch of unsettled weather that will continue into early Thursday as two low pressure systems impact the Mid-Atlantic region. The first surface low pressure system is rather weak and it will continue to generate generally light-to-moderate rainfall for the area before dissipating later tonight. A second and much more powerful storm will pull out of the Gulf of Mexico region on Wednesday and it’ll take an inland track through the Ohio Valley. This second storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic region with heavy rainfall, strong winds and possible thunderstorms from later tomorrow through much of tomorrow night. In fact, the thunderstorms may reach severe levels later tomorrow/tomorrow night in portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic region extending from DC to the Delmarva Peninsula to southern New Jersey and perhaps even as far north as southeastern PA.
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Two separate low pressure systems will impact the eastern US over the next few days with the second system being the stronger one and having more of an impact on the DC, Philly, NYC corridor. Light rain or a wintry mix will break out late today from the first system and a wintry mix could continue for awhile tonight in the northern and western suburbs. The second system will track up through the Ohio Valley at mid-week and rain will be the result here in the I-95 corridor and it’ll fall heavily at times from later tomorrow into early Thursday. Cold air returns for the late week time period following that second storm system and winds will become quite strong on Thursday and Friday. Looking ahead, it looks like this will be the beginning of an overall colder-than-normal stretch of weather that could last right into mid-March.
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It’ll turn somewhat colder today following the mild conditions of this past weekend, but not bad for this time of year. Over the next few days, two separate low pressure systems will ride up through the eastern states with the second system being the stronger one and having more of an impact on the region. Light snow or a wintry mix will likely break out later Tuesday from the first system and a wintry mix cannot be ruled out for awhile early tonight; especially, in the far northern and western suburbs. The second system will take an inland track and rain is likely in the I-95 corridor and to points eastward to the coastline at mid-week and it’ll be heavy at times from later Wednesday into early Thursday. Cold air returns for the late week time period following that second storm system and winds will be quite strong as well on Thursday and Friday.
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The weekend is shaping up to be quite decent for this time of year with high temperatures likely reaching into the middle 50's on Saturday and then to near the 50 degree mark on Sunday. The mild and quiet weather pattern won’t last too long, however. Colder air should return to the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week and there are signs for a storm (or possibly two) to ride up along the eastern seaboard between Tuesday and Thursday. It appears the I-95 corridor is likely to be near the rain/snow line during that period and odds favor a mixed bag of precipitation here with some snow accumulations possible.
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We are going to continue to experience relatively quiet weather over the next few days compared to our recent active weather pattern. In fact, the weekend is shaping up to be quite mild for this time of year with high temperatures on Saturday climbing into the 50's and likely near 50 degrees on Sunday. Looking ahead to next week, however, it looks like the quieter weather pattern will come to an abrupt end. There are signs for a major storm to affect the eastern US by the middle of next week, but many details still have to be ironed out to determine precipitation type and amounts in the I-95 corridor - odds currently favor a mixed bag. This major storm will actually be the beginning of a relatively cold period from late February into mid-March as winter definitely has some punch left .
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We deserve a break in the recent active weather pattern and there is, in fact, a quieter period coming for the next several days including a relatively mild weekend. However, this break should not be interpreted as the “end of winter” as that is quite likely not going to be the case. In fact, there are many signs for an important winter storm by the middle of next week in the eastern US which could generate of lot of snow, sleet and rain.
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Much quieter weather is in store for the area during the second half of the week with only a couple of weak frontal systems to deal with. A weak cold front will cross the region late tonight and then high pressure should build in later Thursday into Friday. A weak warm front will then push through the region on Friday night paving the way for a mild weekend. Looking ahead, don’t get too used to the quiet weather as there could be another winter storm to deal with by the middle of next week and sustained cold air will be an issue.
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The following combination could very well produce “black ice” late tonight/early tomorrow in the I-95 corridor; primarily, in the northern and western suburbs of Philly, NYC and just in time for the morning commute:
1) temperatures drop to near freezing late tonight,
2) many surfaces will remain moist in the overnight hours following today’s heavy rain as it will not be a classic “drying” pattern following the passage of a frontal system,
3) heavy rain from today washes away the “protective” salt on the roads
4) finally, there are still some isolated patches of snow/ice that will continue to melt away.
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A coastal (warm) front pushed in from the east during the wee hours of the morning and temperatures jumped about ten degrees in a very short time. In fact, temperatures have now risen nearly fifty degrees in many areas since early Sunday morning. First there was the accumulating snow phase of this storm late yesterday, then the ice buildup last night, and today will feature the heavy rain and strong winds side of the storm. Rain will fall heavily at times from late morning through the afternoon and there can even be a rumble of thunder along with strong wind gusts. Given the frozen nature of the ground – at least just below surface level – much of today’s rainfall will runoff instead of soaking in and this could cause some flooding issues later in the day. Looking ahead, it looks like a mild weekend with temperatures approaching the 50 degree mark on both days.
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Something about President’s Day and snowstorms…snow is now rapidly closing in on the Philly and NYC metro regions and is actually diminishing just to the south and west of DC. That is not the end of this storm by any means in the DC metro region - just a lull in the action. There was a good thumping of snow on the order of 3-6 inches in the DC metro region this morning (highest amounts south, lowest to the north) and it'll be pretty sporadic for the next few hours. Farther to the northeast in SE PA, New Jersey and New York City, the snow will become heavier and steadier over the next couple of hours and it will stick rather rapidly on untreated surfaces as temperatures remain well below freezing and travel conditions will deteriorate quickly. Those slick travel conditions will last in all areas through the afternoon hours and also during the evening commute.
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