Today will feature more in the way of summer-like temperatures and overall humidity levels will begin to climb to more noticeable levels. There can be an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon; primarily, to the N and W of the NYC metro region, and then a bit more widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely for tomorrow afternoon. The weekend will feature partly-to-mostly sunny skies on each day with high temperatures in the 80’s and generally rain-free conditions. By Monday, Memorial Day, clouds will dominate and it’ll turn somewhat cooler along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. That threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday as well as abundant moisture across the Southeast US pushes slowly northward along the east coast.
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After a cool start to the month of May (Central Park: -3.1 degrees), the next couple of days will be a rude awakening as we'll skip right to mid-summer conditions with soaring temperatures and increasing humidity. High pressure will edge into the region today and the result will be plenty of sunshine and temperatures will respond quickly by climbing to the upper 80’s - perhaps even reaching the 90 degree mark in a few spots. It'll stay summer-like for the next couple of days and humidity levels will become more noticeable. After a rain-free day today, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible tomorrow afternoon and then there is likely to be more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon. The weekend will feature at least partial sunshine on both Saturday and Sunday with generally rain-free conditions and high temperatures in the low-to-mid 80's. It should turn cooler on Monday with high temperatures likely confined to the 70's under mainly cloudy skies and there will be the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
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In our part of the world, cold frontal systems generally move in from the west passing through places like Chicago and Pittsburgh before they arrive here in the Mid-Atlantic region. However, there are occasions in which a cold front can slide through the Mid-Atlantic region by moving in a southwesterly direction down the Northeast US coastline; especially, during the late winter and spring season. These types of fronts are commonly referred to as “back door” cold fronts as they “sneak” in from the northeast as opposed to the usual “front door” type cold fronts that move in from the west. This time of year a “back door” cold front can make a huge difference in temperatures - suddenly replacing a very warm air mass with a chilly, damp flow of air. These fronts are characterized by a high pressure system to the north that can result in a wind shift to an easterly or northeasterly direction which around here is right off the ocean and the current sea surface temperatures are in the still chilly 50’s off of the New Jersey coastline.
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The atmosphere will be unstable enough today to allow for more shower activity in the NYC metro region; however, high pressure will edge in by tomorrow and the result will be plenty of sunshine on Wednesday along with temperatures soaring to the 80’s. A few more weak disturbances will keep it somewhat unsettled around here during the latter part of the week and into the weekend, but it’ll stay very warm for this time of year and the humidity will even become noticeable. There is the chance, however, that a back door cold front slips through late in the holiday weekend and, if so, it could turn much cooler by Monday, Memorial Day; especially, at the coastline.
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An upper-level disturbance combined with surface low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline will keep it unsettled around here into tomorrow raising the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms. By mid-week, high pressure will edge into the area and temperatures will respond nicely and soar into the 80’s all along the I-95 corridor. A few more weak disturbances will keep it unsettled around here during the latter part of the week and weekend and it’ll stay quite warm for this time of year.
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Expansive high pressure is producing a nice end to the work week in the Mid-Atlantic region with plenty of sunshine and warm conditions, but circumstances are about to change quite dramatically. Ingredients are coming together for a significant coastal storm to develop near the Mid-Atlantic coastline during the next 12-24 hours and it is quite likely to produce a soaking rainfall for Philly, DC and New York City as we begin the weekend.
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A strong coastal storm will bring a soaking rainfall to the NYC metro region on Saturday, but first we'll enjoy a fine Friday as large high pressure controls the weather around here for one more day. By tomorrow, intensifying low pressure will head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline and the result around here will be a dreary, much cooler day to start the weekend with periods of rain, a persistent NE wind, and some of the rain can be heavy at times. Clouds will tend to hang on for Sunday and a few lingering showers are likely throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. Another disturbance will pass through the region on Monday and it could generate a shower or thundershower as we begin the new work week, but there will be much rain-free time as well. By the middle of next week, temperatures should climb to the 80 degree mark for highs from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC.
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Large high pressure to our northwest will control the weather for the next couple of days generating noticeably milder and generally dry conditions. Intensifying low pressure will head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Saturday and the result around here will likely be a dreary day with occasional rain likely. Clouds will tend to hang on for Sunday and lingering showers cannot be ruled out.
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Here we go again…by the time the weekend begins the upper air pattern will closely resemble the “omega” blocking pattern of a couple weeks ago featuring an impressive upper-level trough over both the east and west coasts and extensive high pressure ridging in the middle of the country. The upper-level trough in the eastern states will help to intensify low pressure on Saturday as it treks from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline. As a result, rain is likely to push into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by late Friday night or early Saturday morning and then continue heavy at times through most of the day in much of the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, to the south of the PA/MD border .
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High pressure to our northwest will gradually build into the region later today and tonight and it should control the weather around here on Thursday and Friday. Some improvement is possible later this afternoon following morning clouds and a possible shower from another weak disturbance pushing through the local area. The next couple of days will feature plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures as we fall under the influence of the large northern high pressure system. By the weekend, it looks like strong low pressure will head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline and periods of rain are possible around here along with a possible thunderstorm.
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