High pressure over the region will slide offshore over the next 24 hours or so and this will allow for much warmer air to make a brief appearance here at mid-week. A strong cold front will then slide through the region tomorrow night and this will usher in the coolest air so far this month and it’ll feel like fall on Thursday and Friday with afternoon temperatures primarily in the 70’s on both days. As far as our dry spell is concerned, while tomorrow night’s frontal passage can spark a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, it does not look like it’ll be any kind of a significant rain event. Our best chance may come in the Sunday/Monday time frame of early next week and that event could contain some decent rainfall.
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High pressure is in control as we begin the new work week and temperatures are quite comfortable for this time of year. After a brief mid-week warm-up, a strong cold front will usher in the coolest air so far this month and it’ll feel like fall come Thursday and Friday with highs only reaching the 70’s.
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The summer season of June, July and August is now over and the results are in: it was generally hotter and drier than normal in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. In fact, at all three locations each individual month featured above normal temperatures and only one location had above normal rainfall in a given month (NYC in July) – in all other cases, it was drier than normal. The main factor contributing to hotter and drier than normal conditions here in the Mid-Atlantic region has to do with the transition in the tropical Pacific Ocean from El Nino (warmer than normal) to La Nina (colder than normal) conditions. Typically, in these types of transition periods, hotter and drier summer weather dominates in this part of the country and this is what happened in similar recent transition years of 2005, 2007 and 2010. In terms of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, so far the season has been slightly less active than normal, but there are still several weeks to go and that can change.
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A trough of low pressure could help to set off some late day and nighttime shower and thunderstorm activity in the area, but it will not bring us any relief from the heat as highs should once again top the 90 degree mark - perhaps at record-breaking levels in some spots. A strong cold front will arrive late tomorrow night and it will likely generate more showers and thunderstorms for the area later tomorrow and tomorrow night. Following the cold frontal passage, much more comfortable air will move in for Sunday afternoon and the early part of next week.
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A weak cold front will approach the region later today and it could spark some late day and evening shower and thunderstorm activity. Temperatures should climb into the 90’s today and it’ll stay hot on Friday and Saturday as well and there can even be a few broken records in the I-95 corridor. Along with the heat and humidity, there will be the threat for more shower and thunderstorm activity as we close out the work week and begin the weekend. A stronger cold front arrives late Saturday night and it’ll usher in much more comfortable air to close out the weekend and begin the new week.
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Hermine continues to meander off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it’ll continue to produce clouds, some scattered shower activity and some gusty winds. A weak and ineffective cold frontal system will approach the region on Thursday, but it won’t prevent temperatures from climbing into the 90’s and the hot weather will continue on Friday and Saturday as well. A stronger cold frontal system will arrive Saturday night and its passage will usher in more comfortable air for the second half of the weekend and the early part of next week.
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The remains of what was once Hurricane Hermine continue to spin off the Mid-Atlantic coastline this morning and it won’t be completely out of our hair until later in the week after it pretty much falls apart. It turned out to be rather nice and comfortable holiday weekend in much of the Mid-Atlantic region thanks to the eastward shift of Hermine early Saturday morning. It’ll turn noticeably hotter for the second half of week with low 90's likely on Thursday, Friday and Saturday ahead of a strong frontal passage that comes later in the weekend.
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Hermine continued to move eastward in the overnight hours and it is now well off the Mid-Atlantic coastline with maximum sustained winds at 65 mph near the center. Hermine is classified as a “post-tropical” system and should undergo some intensification tonight and Monday as it turns northward and then northwestward and also slows down. Hermine’s main impact on the New Jersey coastline won’t come until late tonight and Monday as it makes its closest approach. After that, Hermine may meander off the Mid-Atlantic for another day or two before turning northeast again. The overnight shift to the east in the center of the system has dramatically lessened the chances for rain and wind in the Philly metro region, DC is in the clear, and the chances of a loop back to an inland position has all but disappeared.
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Hermine came ashore shortly after midnight in the Florida Panhandle region as a category 1 hurricane and this ended the unprecedented hurricane drought for the state. Florida had not seen a hurricane of any intensity since Wilma struck the southwestern part of the state as a major (category 3) hurricane in October 2005. Hermine is now classified as a “tropical storm” and is located over eastern Georgia with max sustained winds at 50 mph and movement to the NE at 18 mph. Hermine will move northeast over the next 24 hours and then push off the Mid-Atlantic coastline later tomorrow. Once off the coast, Hermine is likely to regain strength - likely back to hurricane status - turn north and gradually slow down to a grinding halt. As a result, Hermine is likely to have a major impact on the coastline from Long Island to SE Virginia in what will turn out to be a long duration event of high winds and heavy rain. Significant rain and wind is also possible during this event back to the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC.
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All eyes continue to be focused on Hermine which made landfall last night as the first hurricane of any intensity to strike Florida since October 2005 (Wilma). Hermine will continue to trek to the northeast over the next 24 hours to a position just off the NC/VA coastline by early Saturday, and then it’ll become intertwined with a frontal boundary zone and increasingly under the control of strong high pressure building across the Northeast US. As a result, Hermine is likely to change course and turn more to the north rather than the northeast and slow-down in its advance - and this is a major cause of concern for the Mid-Atlantic coastline from SE Virginia to Long Island. Also, as it slows down Hermine could actually regain strength as it sits over very warm water off the Mid-Atlantic coastline - perhaps even to hurricane status. Coastal flooding is a serious concern given the expected long period of strong northeast winds which will result from the slow-down of the system that will keep it off the Mid-Atlantic coastline into the early/mid part of next week. Strong winds and heavy rain can be expected along the Mid-Atlantic coastline and significant wind and rain can extend all the way back to the I-95 corridor at times this weekend and early next week. Stay tuned.
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