Several ingredients will come together late tomorrow and tomorrow night to produce the chance of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region. The combination of an approaching cool front, higher heat and humidity, a strong low-level jet, and an upper-level trough will likely result in showers and thunderstorms from later tomorrow into tomorrow night and any storm can reach strong-to-severe levels. The main threat should be damaging wind gusts; however, given the expected strong wind shear, there will also be the potential of isolated tornadoes; especially, over northeast PA and NW NJ.
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A cool front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region early Monday and ushered in a comfortable air mass featuring noticeably lower humidity levels than recent days and they’ll stay in the moderate zone today. It’ll turn hotter and more humid on Wednesday ahead of the next cool frontal system and that front is likely to produce afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region. Some of the PM thunderstorms on Wednesday can reach strong-to-severe levels. More comfortable air returns to the region on Thursday following the passage of the mid-week front and it stays comfortable into the weekend. Another front is likely to bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday night and Sunday.
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A cool front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region in the overnight hours and has ushered in a much more comfortable air mass featuring noticeably lower humidity levels. The breeze will be a factor today gusting up to 30 mph or so out of the northwest. It turns warmer on Tuesday and hot on Wednesday ahead of the next cool front. Temperatures at mid-week will climb back into the 90’s and there can be afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. More comfortable air returns to the region later in the week on the heels of the mid-week frontal passage.
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The most uncomfortable part of this current heat spell will come today, tomorrow and Sunday as there will be an increase in overall humidity levels and the heat as well. In addition, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase later today and the threat will continue through the weekend and early part of next week. The increasing potential for rain over the next few days will come about with the increase in overall humidity levels and the interaction with a couple of frontal systems. One such back door front will enter the picture later today from our northeast and then a second cool front will approach from the northwest late on Sunday. Any thunderstorm that forms during the next few days can bring heavy rainfall and produce locally damaging wind gusts. Looking ahead, little in the way of relief is expected next week with temperatures likely back to near 90 degrees on Monday and Tuesday for afternoon highs and then into the 90’s by the middle of next week.
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While quite warm this week in places like Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia, the worst of the heat and humidity is still to come. In fact, humidity levels have been rather manageable in these areas during the past few days limiting “heat indices” which are meant to reflect how weather conditions “feel” to humans given the heat and humidity. Large-scale upper-level ridging has been centered overhead during the past few days allowing for a bit of an onshore flow of air in places like D.C., Philly, and southern New Jersey, but that pattern will change in the Friday, Saturday, Sunday time frame resulting in higher heat and humidity. In addition, the chance of showers and storms will increase beginning later tomorrow and the threat of rain will continue this weekend and any storm that forms can produce locally heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts.
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Temperatures today should peak near the 90 degree mark for afternoon highs and then likely well up in the 90’s on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday which will be the hottest stretch during this heat spell. A few different frontal systems will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with the best chance likely late in the weekend at which time a cool front will be approaching from the northwest. Any thunderstorm that forms in this hot stretch can produce heavy rainfall and locally damaging wind gusts. The late weekend cool front gets hung up in the region early next week suggesting any relief is going to be minimal. In fact, high temperatures should climb to the 90 degree mark on Monday and Tuesday and probably into the 90’s by mid-week.
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High pressure ridging will dominate the weather scene during the next few days across the eastern states and this will lead to a continuation of very warm conditions right through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures today and on Thursday afternoon should peak near the 90 degree mark and then likely go into the 90’s on Friday and Saturday. A few different frontal systems will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and it should turn a bit cooler early next week following the passage of a late weekend cool front.
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High pressure ridging will dominate the weather scene during the next few days across the eastern states and this will lead to a stretch of very warm conditions right through the upcoming weekend. The peak of this upcoming hot spell is likely to be on Friday and Saturday with the middle 90’s possible for highs and then some relief is likely by early next week with the arrival of a cool frontal system. In terms of rainfall, a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out late Friday and then the chance will tend to increase this weekend ahead of the approaching frontal system.
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High pressure will build in all levels of the atmosphere over the next 24 hours across the eastern half of the nation and this will lead to the hottest stretch of weather so far this season. Temperatures will climb to the upper 80’s this afternoon and then into the 90’s during the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend. The peak of this upcoming hot spell is likely to be on Friday and Saturday and then some relief is likely by early next week with the arrival of a cool frontal system.
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Washington, D.C. reached the 90 degree mark on Thursday for only the first time this month, but that is about to change in a big way as an extended hot spell is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region. The hot stretch begins early next week, but before we get there we’ll have to deal with possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and early tonight and these will be followed by a comfortable Father’s Day weekend with lower humidity.
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