A surface cool front is pushing off the coast this morning and its passage has cleansed the atmosphere of the high heat and humidity from yesterday and it’ll lead to improving conditions all along the I-95 corridor. Clouds will give way to sun and overall humidity levels will come down today with the onset of a northwesterly flow of air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. It’ll stay rather comfortable through tomorrow and then the humidity builds up again late Friday night and Saturday ahead of the next cool frontal system. That front can cause another round of showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend and it’s passage will be followed by another comfortable air mass for the early part of next week.
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Several ingredients will come together late today and tonight to raise the chance of severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region. The combination of an approaching surface cool front, higher heat and humidity, a strong low-level jet, wind shear, and an upper-level trough will result in showers and thunderstorms from later today into tonight and any thunderstorm can reach severe levels. The severe weather threats include damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and large hail. In addition, given the expected formation of strong wind shear, there will also be the potential of isolated tornadoes.
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Several ingredients will come together later today and early tonight to produce the chance of severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region. The combination of an approaching cool front, higher heat and humidity, a strong low-level jet, and a vigorous upper-level trough will result in showers and thunderstorms from later this afternoon into the late evening hours and any storm can reach severe levels with potential damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and large hail. In addition, strong wind shear is expected to develop in this environment and this ingredient can result in isolated tornadoes; especially, across the northern Mid-Atlantic regions of NE PA and NW NJ. The surface cool front will move offshore by early tomorrow morning paving the way for lowering humidity levels on Thursday to go along with decreasing cloud cover. Another cool front can bring somewhat of a repeat performance of this type of weather on Saturday night and Sunday with the chance of additional showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms.
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Several ingredients will come together late tomorrow and tomorrow night to produce the chance of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region. The combination of an approaching cool front, higher heat and humidity, a strong low-level jet, and an upper-level trough will likely result in showers and thunderstorms from later tomorrow into tomorrow night and any storm can reach strong-to-severe levels. The main threat should be damaging wind gusts; however, given the expected strong wind shear, there will also be the potential of isolated tornadoes; especially, over northeast PA and NW NJ.
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A cool front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region early Monday and ushered in a comfortable air mass featuring noticeably lower humidity levels than recent days and they’ll stay in the moderate zone today. It’ll turn hotter and more humid on Wednesday ahead of the next cool frontal system and that front is likely to produce afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region. Some of the PM thunderstorms on Wednesday can reach strong-to-severe levels. More comfortable air returns to the region on Thursday following the passage of the mid-week front and it stays comfortable into the weekend. Another front is likely to bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday night and Sunday.
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A cool front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region in the overnight hours and has ushered in a much more comfortable air mass featuring noticeably lower humidity levels. The breeze will be a factor today gusting up to 30 mph or so out of the northwest. It turns warmer on Tuesday and hot on Wednesday ahead of the next cool front. Temperatures at mid-week will climb back into the 90’s and there can be afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. More comfortable air returns to the region later in the week on the heels of the mid-week frontal passage.
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The most uncomfortable part of this current heat spell will come today, tomorrow and Sunday as there will be an increase in overall humidity levels and the heat as well. In addition, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase later today and the threat will continue through the weekend and early part of next week. The increasing potential for rain over the next few days will come about with the increase in overall humidity levels and the interaction with a couple of frontal systems. One such back door front will enter the picture later today from our northeast and then a second cool front will approach from the northwest late on Sunday. Any thunderstorm that forms during the next few days can bring heavy rainfall and produce locally damaging wind gusts. Looking ahead, little in the way of relief is expected next week with temperatures likely back to near 90 degrees on Monday and Tuesday for afternoon highs and then into the 90’s by the middle of next week.
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While quite warm this week in places like Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia, the worst of the heat and humidity is still to come. In fact, humidity levels have been rather manageable in these areas during the past few days limiting “heat indices” which are meant to reflect how weather conditions “feel” to humans given the heat and humidity. Large-scale upper-level ridging has been centered overhead during the past few days allowing for a bit of an onshore flow of air in places like D.C., Philly, and southern New Jersey, but that pattern will change in the Friday, Saturday, Sunday time frame resulting in higher heat and humidity. In addition, the chance of showers and storms will increase beginning later tomorrow and the threat of rain will continue this weekend and any storm that forms can produce locally heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts.
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Temperatures today should peak near the 90 degree mark for afternoon highs and then likely well up in the 90’s on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday which will be the hottest stretch during this heat spell. A few different frontal systems will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with the best chance likely late in the weekend at which time a cool front will be approaching from the northwest. Any thunderstorm that forms in this hot stretch can produce heavy rainfall and locally damaging wind gusts. The late weekend cool front gets hung up in the region early next week suggesting any relief is going to be minimal. In fact, high temperatures should climb to the 90 degree mark on Monday and Tuesday and probably into the 90’s by mid-week.
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High pressure ridging will dominate the weather scene during the next few days across the eastern states and this will lead to a continuation of very warm conditions right through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures today and on Thursday afternoon should peak near the 90 degree mark and then likely go into the 90’s on Friday and Saturday. A few different frontal systems will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and it should turn a bit cooler early next week following the passage of a late weekend cool front.
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