2:40 PM | **Euro model says not so fast for Philly, NYC**
Paul Dorian
12Z Euro total snowfall accumulation map; map courtesy Weather Bell Analytics
Euro
Today’s GFS computer forecast model run had a slight shift to the south and east in its storm track for the late week system, but it still had DC and Philly metro regions in the “sweet spot” for significant snow accumulations. The very latest European model run, however, has shifted the storm even farther to the south and east compared to the GFS and - while it keeps the DC area in the heavy snow area - it generates a sharp snowfall accumulation gradient on the storm’s northern edge and diminishes snowfall amounts substantially in Philly and NYC and points to the north and west. While the Euro’s shift to the south in the storm track is much more dramatic than most other models, it suggests that nothing is set in stone yet for this potential storm. My gut feeling is that this is an unrepeatable run of the Euro and is now too far south with the storm track and it will shift back to the north and west as the event time closes in – not uncommon in the models for big coastal storms - but we’ll just wait and see if this is the beginning of a trend that may be picked up by other computer models.
Main upper-level feature moves ashore tonight
As mentioned yesterday, the all-important upper-level feature that will help to generate this powerful coastal storm is still out over the Pacific Ocean and it won’t come ashore onto the US west coast until tonight. As a result, high confidence in the computer forecast models will have to hold off until later tomorrow as it won’t be until then that there is better data sampling of the all-important upper-level system for the model calculations. There are plenty of details still to be ironed out.
Stay tuned – still 3 days to go.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.