2:30 PM | *Active pattern setting up with multiple precipitation threats including one from Super Bowl Sunday into Monday*
Paul Dorian
12Z GEFS temperature anomalies at 850 mb (~5000 feet) averaged over 5-day increments with days 1-5 (left) and days 6-10 (right). The coldest air "relative-to-normal" will stay to the north and west of the Mid-Atlantic region in this time period setting up a contrast with warmer areas to our south and east. maps courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The next couple of weeks promise to be quite active in the Mid-Atlantic region with the likelihood of multiple precipitation events. One of the main culprits to this unfolding active pattern will be a sharpening temperature gradient very cold air to our north and west and moderate air to our south and east. This “battle zone” region will feature many low pressure systems in coming days as the temperature gradient will become a natural draw for moisture.
An important event is likely to take place in the Mid-Atlantic region from Sunday into Monday. This forecast map is for 1AM Monday and comes from the 12Z GFS model run. map courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com
Discussion
The first precipitation event around here will come late tomorrow into early Friday and this does not look like an important snow event. In fact, it’ll turn milder on Thursday with temperatures climbing into the 40’s and any precipitation that arrives later in the day will be in the form of rain in the DC-to-Philly-NYC corridor. However, as colder air pours in tomorrow night, the rain could very well change to a period of snow before ending early Friday. Odds at this time favor little or no snow accumulation from this frontal passage in the metro regions.
There is the potential for another event by the middle of next week in this unfolding active pattern. map courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com
The next event for the Mid-Atlantic region is likely to take place from Super Bowl Sunday into Monday and it will begin to unfold early in the weekend as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico starts pushing northward. This influx of Gulf of Mexico moisture makes this event one to watch closely as the potential is there for a decent amount of precipitation. However, temperatures during this late weekend/early next week event are likely to be borderline in the immediate I-95 corridor in terms of snowfall and this could turn out to be a system featuring a combination of rain and snow. The ultimate storm track will, of course, be quite important and it is still too early to pin it down. Right now, odds favor significant snow in far-inland areas like central Pennsylvania and rain along coastal sections of NJ, Delmarva with the immediate I-95 corridor leaning towards the wet, not white side of things - but still too far away for certainty. More cold weather will follow this system for the early part of next week and then yet another low pressure area may form in this “battle zone” region by the middle of next week and threaten the Mid-Atlantic region with more snow and/or rain.
Stay tuned.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com
Video discussion: