12:55 PM | *A heavy rain event this weekend in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor*
Paul Dorian
12Z NAM total rainfall forecast map for the upcoming rain event with two inches of rain (purple) predicted in much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by Sunday night; map courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
It has been very dry in recent months across the DC metro region and drier-than-normal in the Philly and NYC metro regions, but a soaking rainfall is headed this way for the upcoming weekend and that, combined with rains earlier this week, should help alleviate some of the dry conditions in the area. Moisture-laden low pressure will slowly ride up along a frontal boundary zone this weekend from Texas to the Northeast US and by the time the weekend ends, many spots in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor could have received two or more inches of rainfall.
12Z NAM forecast maps in 3-hour increments of radar reflectivities from Saturday morning to Sunday night; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
In the latest weekly "drought monitor" report from NOAA, moderate-to-severe conditions are being reported in the DC metro region and "abnormally-dry" conditions in and around Philly and New York City. The recent dry weather pattern, however, does not appear to be part of a long-term trend to be overly concerned about. In fact, decent rains earlier this week will be complemented this weekend by a long-lasting soaking rain event and our generally dry conditions will begin to improve quite appreciably in this area.
US "Drought Monitor" assessment map with moderate-to-severe drought conditions reported by NOAA in the DC metro region and "abnormally dry" conditions in Philly and NYC; courtesy NOAA
High pressure will push offshore on Friday allowing a low-level southeasterly flow of air to develop beginning a warming trend in the area and also bringing in more moist air from over the ocean. Low pressure will emerge from Texas on Saturday and move northeastward over the Appalachians and towards this part of the country. Rain will likely spread into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC later in the day on Saturday from southwest-to-northeast and continue heavy at times on Saturday night and Sunday. As the low pushes northeast, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will spread in our direction and Atlantic Ocean moisture will ultimately feed into the approaching system as well. Temperatures will become quite mild this weekend with a climb through the 40’s likely on Saturday and then they will likely reach the 50’s in many spots on Sunday.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com