12:45 PM (Thursday) | *A soaking rain event in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later Friday night into Saturday*
Paul Dorian
Overview
It could be worse….it could be snow although many might prefer that this time of year. A significant rain event is likely for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor in the Friday night/Saturday time period as a strong wave of energy moves into the Ohio Valley by the early part of the weekend. A wave of low pressure will initially form over the Ohio Valley by later tomorrow and then a secondary system will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Saturday. This secondary system will become the main player and it is likely to result in some soaking rainfall for DC, Philly, NYC and Boston. On the heels of the storm, windy and cold conditions will develop on Sunday and there can be some snow shower activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.
With the upper-level feature over the northern Ohio Valley, snow from the upcoming weekend event will be confined to interior and higher elevation locations in the NE US with predominately a rain event coming to the DC-to-Boston corridor; map courtesy NOAA, tropicalttidbits.com
Details
High pressure has been in control of the weather in much of the eastern US in recent days and it has been the anchor for an Arctic air mass that pushed all the way south through the Florida Peninsula. This system is now pushing to the western Atlantic and its shift in position will open the door for moisture from the middle of the country to make a move into the eastern states.
As upper-level wave of energy pushes into the Ohio Valley on Friday, surface low pressure will form and clouds will lower and thicken in the Mid-Atlantic region. This storm will push to the northeast late tomorrow and tomorrow night and a secondary low pressure system will form somewhere near the Delmarva coastline on Saturday and this system will become the main player. As a result, rain is likely to break out in the DC metro region early Friday night and spread to Philly and NYC by late Friday night. The rain will become heavy at times in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as the secondary low pressure system pushes to the northeast. The rain will slacken off over DC during the afternoon hours on Saturday and then diminish in Philly and NYC late Saturday.
A soaking rain event coming to much of the I-95 corridor in the Friday night/Saturday time period; map courtesy NOAA
There is an outside chance that some “wrap-around” precipitation works into at least parts of the I-95 corridor from Saturday night into early Sunday and it could get cold enough for a bit of frozen precipitation from eastern PA into southeastern NY state. Later Sunday, it’ll become windy and cold and there can be some residual snow shower activity in the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking ahead, the weather will generally be quiet for the first half of next week, but an overall pretty active pattern will likely bring us another storm threat late next week or during the following weekend (as the month of February begins).
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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