12:25 PM (Thursday) | *Significant storm threat by the middle of next week in the southern US, but still unclear as to how far north and east it'll come*
Paul Dorian
Colder-than-normal air is likely to return to much of the central and eastern US as we begin the month of April; map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing across much of the nation in recent days will continue at least into the middle of next week. Low pressure over the middle of the nation this weekend will keep much of the eastern half of the nation unsettled and there are signs that a significant storm may form by the middle of next week. The potential is there for a strong storm to develop next week in the south-central US, but exactly how far to the north and east it will advance is still unclear.
The Euro computer forecast model has been consistently rather far to the north and east with next week’s potential system and the 00Z run depicts a strong wave of energy aloft by next Wednesday, April 1, over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys; map courtesy ECMWF, WSI, Inc.
Details
A strong low pressure system will form over the central Plains this weekend and head northeast towards the Great Lakes region. There will be a frontal system extending all the way from the low pressure center on Saturday to the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll be the focus area for rain and possible thunderstorms. In the Mid-Atlantic, this frontal system will advance slowly to the north on Saturday as a warm front generating showers along the way and then as the low pressure pushes through the Great Lakes, a trailing cold front will slide towards the eastern seaboard with additional showers and perhaps a few strong thunderstorms. Once this system clears out of here early next week, another will form right on its heels.
00Z Euro depicts a double-barreled low pressure system by next Wednesday, April 1, with one center over the Ohio Valley and a second center near the VA/NC border; map courtesy ECMWF, WSI, Inc.
By early next week, a wave of energy in the upper atmosphere will push eastward through the Southwest US and it’ll reach the Tennessee/Ohio Valley region by the middle of next week. With the support in the upper atmosphere, strong surface low pressure is likely to form later Tuesday in the south-central states. There will be lots of Gulf moisture streaming northward into the system on its southeastern (warm) side and this warm, humid air could lead to an outbreak of severe weather from Texas/Louisiana to the Carolinas. It is still unclear as to how far north and east this potential strong storm will advance, but significant rain can impact the Deep South and Tennessee Valley by the middle of next week and potentially even in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US.
If the storm does indeed trek towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline, colder air would likely wrap into the system on its northwestern side. This could ultimately result in sleet and snow across places like the interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US should the storm climb that far to the northeast. This time of year elevation plays a very important role in determining the possibility of frozen precipitation and that could very well turn out to be the case during the middle of next week in the interior Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Stay tuned…several days to go on this one and it is still unclear as to how far to the north and east this system will have an impact.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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