12:25 PM (Tuesday) | ***Frustration continues for snow lovers in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor…opportunities do exist (once again) as we look ahead***

An active weather pattern will likely bring two threats of wintry precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic region next week in the Monday/Tuesday and Wednesday night/Thursday time frames. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Overview

This likely should fall in the “Department of Redundancy Department”, but there are snow threats coming to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor in the near future.  A snowstorm in the middle of December that brought accumulating snow to the I-95 corridor has been followed by lots of threats, but no actual snowfall of any significance.  While there is a snow shower threat late tonight and early tomorrow, a threat for later in the week that looked promising several days ago appears to have fizzled once again as we approach potential event time. Looking ahead to next week, there are likely not one, but two opportunities for accumulating snow (and ice) in the I-95 corridor and we’ll closely monitor these threats in coming days to see if they actually come to fruition this time around and make snow lovers happy.

Today’s GFS model run features a couple of accumulating snow threats next week to at least portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and last night’s ensemble run of the Euro model provides support to this notion with this “total snowfall” forecast map by the end of January. Map courtesy weathermodels.com, ECMWF

Discussion

A storm in the middle of December brought accumulating snow to much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with 2+ inches on the western side of the District of Columbia, 6+ inches to the Philly metro region, and 9+ inches to the NYC area.  Since then, however, multiple snow threats have fizzled out and the I-95 corridor has been in a relative snow drought for the past several weeks.  In Philly, for example, there has not been even a trace of snow during the entire month of January and it would be extremely rare if it went through the entire month without any snow.  Multiple “longer-range” storm threats in recent weeks have either resulted in low pressure areas staying to the south of the Mid-Atlantic region and producing snow to the region from Texas to the Carolinas or these systems have simply weakened significantly by the time they reached the eastern seaboard. 

There is a snow shower threat late tonight and early Wednesday in the I-95 corridor as strong upper-level energy passes overhead - perhaps even heavier snow squalls. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Snow shower threat late tonight/early Wednesday…maybe even a snow squall 

In the near term, there can actually be some snow showers activity in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from late tonight through mid-day hours on Wednesday…maybe even a heavier snow squall or two that would reduce visibility in a hurry and perhaps leave a quick coating.  This threat of snow showers will be the result of a strong wave of energy aloft that will push eastward from the Ohio Valley and move overhead in the period from late tonight to tomorrow afternoon. A colder air mass will move into the Mid-Atlantic region later tomorrow following the passage of a cold front and winds will become quite strong from a northwesterly direction with gusts to 35 mph or so.  Temperatures late tomorrow night will drop to the lower 20’s in many suburban areas along the I-95 corridor and it’ll stay chilly through the latter part of the week.

Next week’s storm threats

The weekend will feature a reinforcing shot of cold air and this new air mass could set the stage for our first threat of wintry precipitation next week in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.  Low pressure is likely to pull out of the southern states early next week and cross over the Tennessee Valley and heads towards the eastern seaboard in the Monday/Tuesday time period.  There will be enough cold air around to allow for the possibility of snow and/or ice at the onset of this system; especially, in those areas north of the PA/MD border.  There is also a chance that any mixed precipitation or rain that falls during the first part of this event could change back to all snow if this system ends up taking a track to the south and east of the I-95 corridor – still too far away for any certainty on the ultimate storm track.

An early week system could result in snow, ice and/or rain in the Mid-Atlantic region in the Monday/Tuesday time period. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

An active pattern aloft is likely to result in a second threat of wintry precipitation later next week – perhaps focused on the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame. A wave of energy will push in from the Pacific Ocean to the western US early next week and it looks like it’ll follow pretty closely on the heels of the early week system. Low pressure associated with this second wave of energy may cross the central Plains at mid-week and then could impact the Mid-Atlantic region by Wednesday night or Thursday.  This second “longer-range” threat to the Mid-Atlantic region may have an even better chance at producing accumulating snow compared to the first as there is a better chance of strong high pressure to the north which usually helps to secure the cold air. 

A late week system could result in snow, ice and/or rain in the Mid-Atlantic region in the Wednesday night/Thursday time period and this potential second event will likely feature a strong high pressure system to the north. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

These two threats for next week are obviously still many days away and in the “speculation phase” – especially “speculative” in light of the many “false alarms” of the past several weeks, but it certainly should provide some hope to snow lovers in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com

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