11:00 AM | *At or below freezing in many spots next few nights… late weekend ocean storm to monitor…warmer next week, but then cold again mid-month*

Colder-than-normal conditions will be widespread in the eastern US on Thursday morning, November 4th. Map courtesy NOAA (NAM model), tropicaltidbits.com

Overview

Last night brought the first frost of the season to many suburban locations of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and the next few nights will likely feature low temperatures at or below the freezing mark.  By the second half of the weekend, a strong storm will likely be situated off the east coast and it’ll have to be monitored to determine potential impact on the eastern Mid-Atlantic, if any, come Sunday or so.  Looking ahead, it looks like a warmer-than-normal stretch of weather will return to much of the eastern half of the nation next week only to be followed by colder weather returning around mid-month. 

Colder-than-normal conditions will be widespread in the eastern US on Friday morning, November 5th. Map courtesy NOAA (NAM model), tropicaltidbits.com

Details

Temperatures dropped to their lowest levels of the season late last night in suburban locations to the north and west of the big cities along the I-95 corridor.  Many of these areas experienced overnight lows in the low-to-mid 30’s and their first frost of the fall season following a warm month of October (PHL +5.8 degrees, DCA +5.5 degrees, NYC +4.1 degrees). Even colder conditions are likely late tonight with overnight lows at or below freezing in many locations and this kind of temperature pattern will repeat late tomorrow night and perhaps again late Friday night.  The next few days will be dry for the most part in the Mid-Atlantic region to go along with these colder-than-normal temperatures.

An ocean storm is likely to form this weekend, but it too early to say if it will have any impact on the eastern part of the Mid-Atlantic region. Map courtesy ECMWF (Euro), tropicaltidbits.com

By later in the weekend, a strong upper-level low will swing to a position off the east coast and this will likely help to spawn a powerful ocean storm.  It remains to be seen how far to the west there can be an impact from this storm, but it will be something to monitor over the next few days. If there is any impact, it would likely be in the eastern part of the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday or Sunday night.

After this week’s colder-than-normal weather in the eastern US, it appears that a big-time warm up will take place next week. However, that warm up next week in the eastern half of the nation is quite likely to be flipped around mid-month back to a colder-than-normal weather pattern. Maps courtesy NOAA(GEFS), tropicaltidbits.com

Looking ahead, following several days with below-normal temperatures, it appears a warmer-than-normal pattern will return next week to much of the eastern half of the nation.  That transition will likely not last all that long as signs point to a return of colder-than-normal weather in much of the eastern US around mid-month or so.  Deep upper-level low may set up near the eastern seaboard around mid-month which could result in some interesting weather as we progress into the second half of the month given the potential combination of storminess and colder-than-normal conditions. 

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
King of Prussia, PA

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