11:30 AM | ***Surge of record-warmth on Saturday in eastern US to be accompanied by showers/strong storms...wind gusts past 50 mph...severe weather today Mississippi Valley including tornado threat***
Paul Dorian
A surge of warmth on Saturday into the eastern US will likely result in many record high temperatures for the date of December 11th. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The weather has been rather chilly in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US during the past few days, but a major league warm-up is coming on Saturday. In fact, the surge of warmth tomorrow will quite likely result in record highs in many spots including perhaps the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions. Another factor on Saturday will be the winds which will intensify substantially ahead of an incoming strong cold front perhaps gusting up to 55 mph or so. Showers are likely to accompany this frontal system on Saturday in the eastern states and there can even be some strong thunderstorm activity. It’ll turn considerably colder on Sunday following the frontal passage, but then warmer conditions will return next week. For today, the warm air will explode northward through the Mississippi Valley and a severe weather outbreak is on the table which includes the threat for tornadoes.
The warmth will not be the only weather factor of interest on Saturday as winds could potentially reach damaging levels gusting to 55 mph or so. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Discussion
A surge of warmth is exploding northward today across the Mississippi Valley ahead of an approaching cold front and there is likely to be a severe weather outbreak later today that can include some tornadic activity. As the front pushes east on Saturday so will the warm surge temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US should soar into the 60’s and perhaps even the lower 70’s in some areas. This warm surge on Saturday will take place on the front side of an advancing cold frontal system and daily records for December 11th could fall in many spots. For example, the record at Reagan National Airport (DCA) for December 11th is 68 degrees (1979) and temperatures in that region could soar to the 70 degree mark on Saturday. In addition, Philly’s record high on December 11th is 65 degrees (1971) and this record could actually be beaten by a few degrees. The record in New York City’s Central Park is 64 degrees set way back in 1879 and this too is in jeopardy.
Warm air today will explode northward through the Mississippi Valley and it could result in a widespread severe weather outbreak including the threat of tornadoes. Map courtesy NOAA
In addition to the unusual warmth, the winds will become a major factor and potentially reach damaging levels with gusts possible to 55 mph or so. These winds will be from a south-to-southwesterly direction tomorrow afternoon ahead of the advancing frontal system and then quickly shift to northwesterly tomorrow night following its passage – both pre-frontal and post-frontal winds can produce damage to tree limbs, etc.
After a short-lived cold snap on Sunday in the eastern states, the bulk of next week will become much warmer-than-normal as strong ridging develops by mid-week centered near the Great Lakes. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
In terms of precipitation associated with the strong front, there can be scattered shower activity in the morning and early-to-mid afternoon with some patchy fog as well. More numerous showers are likely to arrive late in the day and continue through the evening hours and they can be accompanied by some strong thunderstorm activity as well. Following the passage of the front, it’ll turn considerably colder on Sunday, but the cold shot will be rather short-lived. The overall pattern looks to remain with temperatures likely to be well above-normal in much of the eastern 2/3rds of the nation and only the western US likely to feature colder-than-normal conditions.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian