1:10 PM (Thurs.) | ***Weekend threat continues for icing in the Mid-Atlantic region…major winter storm potential for early next week from the Deep South-to-Ohio Valley-to-Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US***

Extremely cold air will plunge this weekend from the Northern Plains to the Deep South and record cold temperatures will be possible across Texas and Oklahoma by Monday morning. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Overview

A very active weather pattern continues for much of the nation as we close in on the end of the week and it will continue right through next week. One fast-moving system produced some accumulating snow last night in the Mid-Atlantic region and another one will do the same tonight although a bit farther to the south.  Another system will likely bring some icing to the Mid-Atlantic region from later Saturday into early Sunday as temperatures stay below freezing in most areas.  In fact, the overall weather pattern is evolving into one that favors ice events across a good part of the nation. The weekend system does not look all that strong, but it doesn’t take much in the way of ice to cause some problems. Looking ahead, there is growing potential for a major winter storm early next week that can have a significant impact from the Rockies to the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and then finally to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.

Temperatures are quite likely to fall well below zero by Monday morning across the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma and also across eastern New Mexico. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Discussion

The energetic pattern of recent days will continue through next week with storm-after-storm impacting the nation from coast-to-coast.  Accumulating snow fell last night and early this morning in the Mid-Atlantic region from a system that is now exiting and another disturbance will produce more snow tonight/early Friday across central Virginia and the southern Delmarva Peninsula with the DC metro region on its northern fringes.

The weekend will present all kinds of winter weather problems across the nation with snow, ice and even extreme cold in some areas.  In the East, there will a wave of low pressure that will be headed to the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it will pull some moisture from the southeastern states to the northeast - and into a cold air mass.  Temperatures are quite likely to stay below freezing throughout the day on Saturday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and also during Saturday night. As a result, there can be some icing in this region from later Saturday into early Sunday as a bit of warming takes place in the upper atmosphere and snow certainly can be mixed in for part of this weekend event.  The upper-level support for this system does not look like all that impressive so I do not expect significant amounts of precipitation; however, it doesn’t take much in the way of ice to generate some problems - something to look out for later Saturday and Saturday night.

A change in winds across the upper part of the atmosphere from “west-to-southwest” in coming days will increase the odds of significant ice events across much of the nation (i.e., warmer air aloft, colder dense air remains at ground-level). Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Elsewhere this weekend, a strong storm will push into the Pacific Northwest and likely produce significant snow and ice in western sections of Washington and Oregon.  At the same time, Arctic air will plunge southward from the Northern Plains to Oklahoma/Texas/New Mexico in what could turn out to be a record-breaking cold air outbreak for that part of the nation.  The strong storm out in the western states will slide southeastward later in the weekend and generate significant snows in the Rocky Mountain States and then significant snow and ice will hit the Southwest US and southern Plains.  In fact, accumulating snow could reach all the way down into Dallas, Texas by Sunday night/early Monday and ice can become an issue all the way down into the Houston metro area by the Gulf coast. 

Yesterday’s model run of the GFS featured a strong low pressure system over the Ohio Valley as of Tuesday morning, February 16th. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

On Monday, this major storm system will turn to the northeast and it’ll likely result in a major snow and ice event from Texas to the Ohio Valley with some extremely cold air on the northwest side of the storm track.  At the same time, strong cold high pressure will expand from the Northern Plains into the southeastern part of Canada and this will ensure that cold air remains in place across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US as we begin the new work week.

Today’s model run of the GFS featured a strong low pressure system over the Carolinas as of Tuesday morning, February 16th. This is quite a dramatic southeastward shift in location compared to the model run from 24 hours earlier. If this trend continues, it would result in a better chance of more significant accumulating snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region early next week (i.e., a colder solution compared to one with an Ohio Valley storm track). Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

It is at this point in time that there are differing possible scenarios as to the ultimate storm track of this particular system.  Many computer model projections have thus far predicted this low pressure system would push into the Ohio Valley and well to the north and west of the I-95 corridor.  If so, this kind of a track would allow for warmer air to move into the I-95 corridor - at least in the upper part of the atmosphere – and this would likely result in lower chances for significant accumulating snow and a greater chance for ice and rain.  If, on the other hand, this storm system would track farther to the south and east – a more plausible scenario in my opinion – then this kind of track would generate a colder solution for the Mid-Atlantic region with a better chance of significant accumulating snow. This potential change in storm track for the early week system is something we’ll closely monitor in coming days. 

Significant icing is a threat for the Mid-Atlantic region over the next week or so as the upper air pattern into one which would favor warmer air aloft while cold air sits at ground-level. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

In either case, there is the potential for a significant snow and/or ice event in the Mid-Atlantic region in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame and this would come on the heels of a major snow and ice event from this same system in the region from the Deep South to the Ohio Valley. Later next week, odds are quite strong that there will be another significant storm to deal with across much of the nation with additional snow, ice and rain possible in the Mid-Atlantic region by Wednesday night or Thursday.

Buckle up…the next week or so will be quite active.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube

Video discussion: