3:10 PM (Friday) | ***May just see some snow later tonight in some of the northern/western suburbs…(plain) rain this weekend…a quick, but intense Arctic blast from later Monday into Tuesday***
Paul Dorian
A quick, but rather intense Arctic blast will impact the NE US/Mid-Atlantic region from later Monday into Tuesday. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
Don’t be surprised to see some snowflakes later tonight in some of the northern and western suburbs along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as moisture pushes into a relatively cold and dry air mass (dew points in the teens). In fact, there can be a coating to an inch or so in some of the nearby northern and western suburbs of Philly and NYC and also in some of the far northern and western suburbs of DC.
Rain will be the dominate precipitation type on Saturday morning in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor before it winds down at mid-day and there will be significant rainfall on Sunday and Sunday night. An Arctic front will then blast through the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic region on Monday and the winds will kick up noticeably later in the day and continue quite strong on Monday night. In addition, the plunge in temperatures will be quite dramatic in this short, but intense Arctic cold air outbreak and there can even be a few snow squalls in the Northeast US upon its arrival.
18Z HRRR surface forecast map for later this evening (10 PM) shows a mix of snow (blue) and rain (green) in the DC metro region. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Snow/rain later tonight
Moisture will push from the southwest-to-northeast this evening and it’ll run right into a relatively cold and very dry air mass in the Mid-Atlantic region. As a result, there can be a mix of snow and rain in the DC metro region as the moisture arrives during the evening hours and “all snow” is a possibility later tonight in the northern and western suburbs of Philadelphia and New York City. In fact, a coating to an inch or so cannot be ruled out in some of those nearby northern and western suburbs of Philly and NYC and in some of the far northern and western suburbs of DC. A change to rain is likely in all areas by daybreak on Saturday.
18Z HRRR surface forecast map for later tonight (1 AM) shows mainly snow (blue) in the northern and western suburban of Philadelphia. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Rain this weekend
As weak low pressure tries to intensify along the Mid-Atlantic coastline early on Saturday, rain is likely to continue through much of the morning hours and perhaps into the mid-day/early afternoon across NYC. The afternoon should turn out to be generally rain-free although clouds may be pretty stubborn to vacate the Mid-Atlantic region. A more significant rainfall is likely on Sunday and Sunday night in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as a stalled-out frontal boundary zone acts as a conduit for moisture to move along from southwest-to-northeast later in the weekend.
The next 72 hours will feature some decent rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region and a heavy rain event across the Tennessee Valley. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Arctic blast later Monday into Tuesday
The rain pushes away from the I-95 corridor early Monday, but a powerful upper-level wave of low pressure will bowl its way southeastward across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast US. This system will push an Arctic front through the NE US/Mid-Atlantic later Monday and this system will not go through unnoticed. The winds will kick up noticeably later Monday and continue on the strong side during Monday night as a tight pressure gradient forms between departing low pressure and an approaching strong high pressure system to our northwest. Much colder air will pour into the northeastern quadrant of the nation by Monday night and the sharply colder conditions will continue on Tuesday as well. However, while this Arctic blast will be rather intense, it will also be rather short-lived with calmer conditions and modification in temperatures by the time we get to Tuesday night/Wednesday.
Looking ahead, there is a chance that a storm forms somewhere near the east coast by the middle of next week and there will be some lingering chilly air around in the Northeast US - albeit not as cold as early in the week. This is a threat that will have to be monitored in coming days.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube
Video discussion: