12:30 PM (Tuesday) | *Downpours/strong-to-severe storms on the table for Thursday/Thursday night in the Mid-Atlantic region*
Paul Dorian
A slow-moving upper-level trough will combine with moist air and a surface frontal boundary zone to raise the chances for downpours/strong-to-severe storms on Thursday and Thursday night in the Mid-Atlantic region. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The weekend was very chilly in the Mid-Atlantic region and it was accompanied by a soaking rain event which was actually beneficial (despite its poor timing) due to the recent dry spell. It looks like more significant rainfall is on the table for Thursday and Thursday night and it could include strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. The combination of an increasingly moist flow of air, surface frontal system, and a slow-moving upper-level trough will raise the prospects for the rain and potential severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic region.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed the Mid-Atlantic region in a “slight” risk for severe weather on Thursday and Thursday night. Map courtesy NOAA
Details
The weekend featured temperatures that were some 25-30 degrees below-normal in the Mid-Atlantic region and the unusual chill was accompanied by soaking rainfall. This rainfall had poor timing at the beginning and middle of a long holiday weekend, but it was welcome as it followed a couple weeks with little to no rain in the area. Temperatures are now much closer to normal as we begin the new month of June and it looks like more significant rainfall is possible later in the week.
12Z NAM forecast map for Thursday evening features a line of heavy rain and embedded strong storms along the I-95 corridor. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
High pressure will generally be in control of the weather around here into mid-week, but then the combination of an increasingly moist flow of air from the southwest, surface frontal system, and slow-moving (positively-tilted) upper-level trough of low pressure will increase chances of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Thursday night and some of the rain can be heavy at times. Strong winds aloft will also play a role as they will spread above the moistening pre-frontal warm sector on Thursday in association with the upper-level trough. Storms are likely to form in the afternoon along and ahead of a frontal boundary zone and can continue into the early evening hours with some of the cells potentially reaching strong-to-severe levels.
The frontal system will tend to weaken on Friday as high pressure ridging begins to expand to the Mid-Atlantic region from the Tennessee Valley. The strengthening ridge of high pressure will likely result in some very warm weather this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic and temperatures could approach the 90 degree mark for afternoon highs in some spots along the I-95 corridor – a far cry from last Saturday and Sunday. Any shower or thunderstorm activity this upcoming weekend is likely to be rather limited in coverage given the expanding high pressure ridging into the Mid-Atlantic region.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Peraton
peratonweather.com
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