12:30 PM | ***Very cold stretch right through Tuesday night following passage of secondary Arctic front…"Great Lakes snow machine" turned on…stormy pattern evolving***

One of the coldest air masses in a few years will pour into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US this evening and wind chills of single digits will be commonplace by early Tuesday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corrodor. Map courtesy NOAA, pivotal weather

Overview

A cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday night and a secondary cold front will come through on Monday evening.  This secondary cold front will usher in true Arctic air for the region with its origins way up in the high latitudes and the stretch of weather from Monday night through Tuesday night will feature some of the coldest conditions we’ve experienced in quite awhile and some “face-slapping” wind chills.  The “Great Lakes snow machine” has been activated with the Arctic air mass flowing over the relatively warm waters and will continue into Tuesday for downstream locations. Looking ahead, the overall weather pattern is likely to evolve into one that can produce storms in the eastern US during at least a 10-day stretch beginning this weekend. 

An Arctic blast arrives tonight in the northeastern quadrant of the nation following the passage of a secondary cold frontal system. Temperatures will be well below-normal from tonight through tomorrow night and wind chills can be at dangerously cold levels. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Arctic blast in the near term

A strong cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday night and today is a cold, blustery day with temperatures well below-normal, but an even colder air mass will push into the region for the 36-hour stretch from tonight through tomorrow night.  This even colder air mass will be ushered in by the passage of a secondary cold front that’ll arrive later this evening and there can be snow shower activity ahead of it and with the actual arrival of the Arctic front.  In fact, the “Great Lakes snow machine” has already been activated by this incoming Arctic blast and some spots just downstream of the lakes will get blasted by heavy snow bands (e.g., Rochester, Jamestown in NY State).

Following the passage of the Arctic front, the Mid-Atlantic and NE US will experience the coldest conditions of the season so far and in some spots, the coldest weather seen since 2019.  Wind chills will be at “face-slapping” levels dropping to single digits to sub-zero by early Tuesday and high temperatures tomorrow will be some 15 to 20 degrees below-normal.  After another very cold night on Tuesday night, temperatures will modify some on Wednesday and even more on Thursday with many spots in the I-95 corridor reaching 40+ degrees for Thursday afternoon highs.

An “ocean” storm is likely to form late this week and stay out over the open waters of the Atlantic. However, the ultimate storm track is certainly not set in stone yet as this “ensemble” run of the Euro model shows with a wide range of potential surface storm locations. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics

Potential stormy weather pattern beginning this weekend

The overall weather pattern appears to be evolving into one that could feature multiple storm possibilities for the eastern US in at least a 10-day period beginning by the upcoming weekend.  The first storm threat that has to be monitored in coming days will be of a low pressure system that is likely to form later Thursday or Friday in the western Atlantic Ocean. This system will probably intensify rather significantly by week’s end as it heads to the northeast out over the open waters of the western Atlantic. There is still some uncertainty in the ultimate track of this “ocean” storm; in other words, it bears watching over the next few days.  As it stands now, the impact from this threat could be limited to eastern Maine and Nova Scotia, but it wouldn’t take much of a change for a different outlook in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. 

Following right on the heels of this pending late week “ocean” storm, the overall pattern looks rather threatening beginning this weekend and continuing into the middle of next week.  There will likely be a couple of strong upper-level disturbances that drop southeast from Canada into the US and either or both of these can have an impact on the Mid-Atlantic/NE US anywhere in the Saturday (Jan. 15th)-to-Wednesday (Jan. 19th) time period.

A stormy weather pattern could unfold for later next week into the following week with deep troughing in the eastern US, strong ridging near Alaska and western Canada, and high-latitude blocking over the North Atlantic. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Looking even longer term, the evolving weather pattern looks perhaps even more threatening beginning later next week and continuing into the following week (i.e., the last full week of the month). Specifically, there are signs for a deepening upper-level trough to develop in the eastern US at the same time high-latitude blocking forms over the northern Atlantic and strong ridging develops near Alaska and western Canada. This combination will allow for the transport of additional cold air masses from northern Canada into the central and eastern US. In fact, there are signs of “cross-polar” flow later this month that would allow for the transport of cold air masses from the Siberian side of the North Pole into Canada and perhaps into the central/eastern US. This type of upper-level pattern can certainly lead to additional storm threats for the eastern US from later next week in the following week.

Stay tuned…it could be a wild ride during the second half of the month.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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