8:30 AM (Sun) | ***Snow to hang on for awhile longer aided by a strong upper-level jet streak…very cold tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night…heavy rain/strong thunderstorms possible later Thursday***
Paul Dorian
A strong upper-level jet streak is helping to promote upward motion in the Mid-Atlantic region and off and on snow will continue into the mid-day or early afternoon hours. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
After a mild start to the weekend, a pair of cold frontal passages ushered in much colder air to the Mid-Atlantic region that will stick around into Tuesday. Precipitation broke out late last night along the frontal boundary zone and changed to all snow before sunrise in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as Arctic air filtered into the region. Snow will continue at varying rates for awhile longer today – likely into mid-day or early afternoon - aided in large part by a strong upper-level jet streak and mid-level frontogenesis. There can be additional accumulations of a couple of inches on untreated surfaces. Temperatures will hold in the low-to-mid 30’s and then drop into the teens during the overnight hours and they’ll remain well below-normal on Monday and Monday night. After a cold day on Tuesday and a milder Wednesday, very active weather will come to the area later Thursday and Thursday night possibly to include heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms along with a dramatic, but brief spike in temperatures.
There is still plenty of instability in the atmosphere as depicted here by the 06Z NAM for the mid-morning time frame and the result will be more snow likely lasting into mid-day or early afternoon hours. In fact, some of the snow can fall at moderate-to-heavier rates in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few hours. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
Early morning radar continues to show a southwest-to-northeast snow band extending from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Northeast US aided in large part by an upper-level jet streak overhead and mid-level frontogenesis - both of which continue to produce strong upward motion. The snow will continue at varying rates in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor for another few hours - until mid-day or early afternoon - and there can be additional accumulations of up to a couple of inches on untreated surfaces. On the eastern side of the Mid-Atlantic (i.e., coastal sections of New Jersey to the Delmarva Peninsula to eastern Virginia), snow will tend to hang on until the mid or late afternoon hours. As far as roads are concerned for “Super Bowl” travel plans, they should remain in pretty decent shape given the time of the day of this snowfall, but certainly be on the lookout for slippery spots during any moderate-to-heavy snow band. One final note, all areas can see scattered snow showers later tonight and early Monday as another piece of upper-level energy pushes overhead...perhaps even a heavier snow squall or two.
Valentine’s Day (Monday) will feature well below-normal temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Temperatures will hold nearly steady in most places during the day on Sunday in the lower or middle 30’s and then will drop into the teens later tonight in many spots along the I-95 corridor. Very cold conditions will follow on Monday and Monday night with Valentine’s Day high temperatures generally confined to the 20’s - well below-normal for mid-February.
After a cold Tuesday, the Arctic chill will disappear at mid-week and then it turns much milder on Thursday and the weather will become much more active. Low pressure will pass by to the northwest of here and a strong cold front will head this way from northwest-to-southeast. Rain will break out later Thursday and it can become heavy at times and strong thunderstorms may be included in the mix. In fact, there is a chance that flooding and/or severe weather advisories might have to be issued in parts of the Mid-Atlantic/NE US during this late week event…it turns colder again for Friday and the weekend to follow.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com