1:00 PM (Tuesday) | *If April showers bring May flowers then we may be in store for quite a colorful month*
Paul Dorian
A soaking rain event for the Mid-Atlantic region from today into early Wednesday and more rain will follow on Thursday. Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
An active weather pattern will result in plenty of rain for the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days with a soaker tonight and then additional rain later on Thursday. After that, it doesn’t exactly clear out as a deep upper-level trough of low pressure will set up shop over the northeastern part of the nation for Friday and Saturday bringing us cool, unsettled weather will additional showers possible.
This forecast map by the 12Z NAM model depicts quite a bit of rain between today and early Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
It has been raining for much of the day south of the PA/MD border in the region from West Virginia-to-DC-to the Delmarva Peninsula and that precipitation shield will intensify tonight and shift to the north and east. As a result, heavy rain is on the table from later today through tonight and into the AM hours on Wednesday all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Surface low pressure will move from the Ohio River Valley early this evening to the central part of Virginia by midnight and then to the southern New Jersey coastline by early Wednesday. Steady rain will reach the Philly and NYC metro regions between the hours of 6 and 10 pm and continue into early Wednesday resulting in quite a soaking by mid-morning tomorrow on the order of 1.5-2.5 inches in most of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
A cooler air mass will push into the Mid-Atlantic at the end of the week and it’ll be quite unstable as well with occasional showers on the table on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday. map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
The rain threat will diminish on Wednesday afternoon in the Mid-Atlantic region although a residual shower cannot be ruled out. The break in the action will not last too long. A strong cold front will push this way on Thursday and additional rainfall is likely – perhaps even an embedded thunderstorm or two. By Friday, cooler air will be pushing into the Mid-Atlantic region and an upper-level trough of low pressure will head this way. The disturbance in the upper atmosphere along with cold air aloft will create an unstable atmosphere both later Friday and on Saturday likely resulting in occasional showers. In fact, given the chill expected aloft, cannot rule out a little graupel (i.e., snow pellets) in at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region similar to what we experienced a couple of weeks ago.
As the old adage goes…April showers bring May flowers…if true, we’re in store for a colorful month of May. Photo courtesy Marc to Market.com
Looking ahead, there are strong signs that a warm up will develop next week across the eastern US with a flip in the pattern as high pressure ridging forms in the east and upper-level low pressure intensifies in the west. The warm up next week across the East may not be the end of the cold air outbreaks, however, as signs point to a possible downward trend in temperatures for the following week.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com