12:30 PM | ***Recent dry spell ends with a significant rain event in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US…tropical update for both the western Atlantic and eastern Pacific***
Paul Dorian
The past 48 hours have seen significant rainfall amounts in much of the Mid-Atlantic region with as much as 5 inches reported in the northwest suburbs along the DC-to-Philly corridor. Map courtesy NOAA, T
Overview
It has been quite dry in recent weeks across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and this spell has changed in a big-time way during the last 24 hours with significant rainfall. The combination of a slow-moving frontal system and low pressure has resulted in as much as 8+ inches of rain in some spots and much the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Boston has been impacted. At mid-day, the heaviest of the rain is falling along coastal sections from New Jersey to southern New England, but flooding issues remain at inland locations. Residual showers are likely from later today into Wednesday and then nice weather is in store for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
On the tropical scene, “Earl” is a strong tropical storm over the western Atlantic and moving slowly to the north. It will likely intensify into a hurricane over the next 24 hours or so - perhaps even a “major” - as it gradually turns to the northeast and likely avoiding any direct impact on the east coast. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific features Hurricane “Kay” which could very well throw some moisture into southern California by the end of the week.
The past 48 hours have seen significant rainfall amounts in much of the Northeast US with as much as 7 inches reported in southern New England. Map courtesy NOAA, Twitter; Toomer Berg, ploarwx.com
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US significant rain event
The dry weather pattern of recent weekend in the northeastern part of the country has ended in a big way with significant rainfall over a wide area of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. In fact, the rain has totaled more than 3 inches in chunks of the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Boston and in some spots as high as 7 or 8 inches resulting in flooding conditions in many areas. The combination of a slow-moving frontal system and low pressure enhanced the rain fall from yesterday into mid-day on Tuesday. The heaviest rainfall on Monday took place across southern New England where, for example, more than 8.5 inches fell in Providence, Rhode Island. The rain continues in that region today as well with flooding still an issue. Farther south, the heavy rain developed in the wee hours of Tuesday morning in the region from DC-to-Philly and then spread to NYC later in the morning where it continues rather heavily at mid-day. While showers are possible from tonight into Wednesday, there should not be anything like the downpours of the past 24 hours or so. High pressure pushes in for the Thursday, Friday and Saturday time period and temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US will be quite comfortable with plenty of sunshine.
This Thursday afternoon forecast map features Hurricane Kay nearing Baja California in the eastern Pacific and “Earl” which could be a hurricane at this time (currently a strong tropical storm) as it begins a turn to the northeast and likely staying away from the US east coast. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Tropical update
The Atlantic Basin has become more active in terms of tropical activity, but so far, there is no threat to the US east or Gulf coasts. Tropical Storm Earl is on the verge of reaching hurricane status over the western Atlantic and it could reach “major” hurricane status over the next day or so. TS Earl should turn from north to the northeast over the next 24 hours and avoid any direct impact on the east coast, but it is still a system to closely monitor. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Kay is heading northwest and could very well reach “major” hurricane status by tomorrow night. After that, Kay is likely to skirt the west coast of Baja California before turning more in a westerly direction this weekend. There is a chance that some of Kay’s tropical moisture makes it all the way into southern California by the Friday night/Saturday time period with places like San Diego on the table for showers and thunderstorms at week’s end.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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