10:00 AM | ***Damaging wind gusts possible this morning with rain/scattered thunderstorms… sun this afternoon to boost chances for late day/evening severe weather including isolated tornadoes***
Paul Dorian
Lots of instability in the Mid-Atlantic region today and one of the contributors is a deep upper-level low situated at the 500 mb level. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
Overview
Strong low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes this morning continues to wreak havoc across the nation. Last night, tornadoes broke out from the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and, in the cold sector of the storm, accumulating snow fell across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Snow continues today across the Great Lakes region this morning and powerful potentially damaging winds have reached the Mid-Atlantic region to along with rain, scattered strong thunderstorms, and very mild conditions. A dry slot should result in some sunshine this afternoon in the I-95 corridor which will only boost chances for late day/evening severe weather with damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes on the table.
Severe weather is a threat today in the Mid-Atlantic region/Northeast US and in the southeastern states as well according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.
Details
In much the same manner as at the end of the last week, the atmosphere become unstable enough last night to produce a severe weather outbreak. This time the outbreak took place from the Mississippi Valley region to the Ohio Valley with numerous reports of tornadoes. A multitude of ingredients came together late yesterday including vigorous upper-level support, an intrusion of warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a strong surface cold front, and an influx of cold, dry air from the north and west. All of this instability in the atmosphere has now shifted into the eastern US.
A dry slot can result in some sunshine this afternoon in the I-95 corridor which can “add fuel to the fire” leading to a round of severe weather late in the day and early tonight. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Rain and scattered strong thunderstorms have also pushed into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and will continue for much of the morning. Strong low-level winds from a southwesterly direction are contributing to wind gusts of 40 mph and temperatures have jumped to very mild levels. There remains the potential for winds to gust as high as 50-55 mph during the next several hours; especially, in any strong thunderstorm that may form.
By mid-day, a dry slot will push up into the I-95 corridor region and there can even be enough clearing to allow for some sunshine boosting temperatures well into the 70’s in some areas along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Any sunshine that develops this afternoon will act to destabilize the atmosphere ahead of the incoming strong cold front. As a result, thunderstorms are likely to form along and just ahead of the incoming cold front and the abundant shear and instability in the atmosphere will raise the chance for late day/evening (4-10 pm) severe storms. Any of these thunderstorms later today/early tonight can produce damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, hail, and even isolated tornadoes will be a possibility.
Behind the cold front, winds will remain quite strong later tonight and on Sunday, but from a northwesterly direction bringing in much colder air compared to today. Temperatures on Sunday will be some 20 degrees colder than today despite sunshine and many spots in the Mid-Atlantic region will drop to near the freezing mark late tomorrow night. Looking ahead, there very well may be another severe weather outbreak next week.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com