12:30 PM (Tuesday) | *Beneficial rainfall on Monday in much of the Mid-Atlantic with additional chances in coming days…next shot of showers and storms comes on Wednesday with nearby upper-level low*
Paul Dorian
The first appreciable and widespread rainfall in awhile took place on Monday in the Mid-Atlantic region. While the DC metro region received generally a half an inch or less, 1-2 inches of rain was typical across eastern PA, northern Delaware and western NJ. Map courtesy NOAA
Overview
Much-needed rainfall fell in the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday with 1-2 inches commonplace across eastern Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, and western New Jersey. The next several days will bring additional chances of rain to the area with the first threat coming on Wednesday as an upper-level low pressure system moves close by. As a result, the atmosphere will destabilize later tomorrow as colder air moves in aloft and an outbreak of showers and thunderstorms is quite likely. In fact, some of the thunderstorms that do form later tomorrow can become quite strong with brief downpours and small hail a possibility. Another batch of showers is possible on Friday as another upper-level low spins its way into the Mid-Atlantic region and yet another disturbance can raise the chances for rain in the Monday/Tuesday time frame.
The same upper-level low that contributed to yesterday’s rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region will work its way to a nearby position by later tomorrow helping to destabilize the atmosphere. As a result, there is likely to be an outbreak of showers and thunderstorms later tomorrow and some of the storms can reach strong levels with brief downpours a threat along with small hail. Map courtesy NOAA/WPC, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
After several weeks without appreciable rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region, the spigots opened up on Monday with 1-2 inches commonplace across eastern PA, northern Delaware, and western NJ. Lesser amounts of rain fell yesterday to the south of the PA/MD border with a half an inch or less in much of the DC metro region. In fact, this same general trend with higher amounts of rain falling north of the Mason-Dixon Line may continue with each of the next few threats.
The 00Z Euro forecast map of total precipitation amounts during the next ten days presents quite a bit of hope for an improvement in dry soil conditions across the eastern third of the nation. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
One of the contributing factors to the rain on Monday was an upper-level low pressure system that pushed its way to the eastern Great Lakes. This same system will spin its way to a nearby proximity by later tomorrow helping to destabilize the atmosphere as colder air moves in aloft. As a result, there is likely to be an outbreak of showers and thunderstorms later tomorrow and some of the storms can become strong enough to generate brief downpours and perhaps even small hail.
A new upper-level low will work its way into the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday likely bringing with it another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms as we close out the work week. Map courtesy NOAA/WPC, tropicaltidbits.com
By Thursday, the upper-level low will work its way to eastern Canada and weak high pressure ridging aloft will take control of the weather resulting in a rather nice day for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Unsettled conditions are likely to return on Friday as a large-scale upper-level trough begins to take shape in the eastern states. Showers and thunderstorms can re-develop on Friday and yet another disturbance will produce another threat of rain early next week. In between and if all goes well, the weekend could actually sneak through with pretty decent overall weather conditions; however, a shower or thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out quite yet for either day.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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