3:00 PM (Wed.) | ***Scattered showers/storms later today, tonight and during the day on Thursday…a potent system is then likely to cause quite an active Thursday night***
Paul Dorian
A potent system will cross the Great Lakes on Thursday and it is likely to produce an active Thursday night in the Mid-Atlantic region with heavy downpours on the table. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
Overview
The active weather pattern experienced in the Mid-Atlantic region in recent weeks remains fully intact as we head towards the end of this week. Heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms passed through much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor in the overnight and early morning hours and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible from later today through the day on Thursday. Any one of these showers or thunderstorms during the next 24 hours can produce heavy rainfall in what is an already well saturated part of the country. The threat of heavy rain does not end with sunset on Thursday evening. In fact, perhaps the biggest threat of additional heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region will come on Thursday night as a potent system impacts the region.
One of the contributing factors to active weather expected on Thursday night in the Mid-Atlantic region will be a strong upper-level jet streak (80+ knots at 200 mb level) that will help to destabilize the atmosphere. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
Details
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely later today and tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and any one of these can produce locally heavy rainfall amounts and potentially flash flooding conditions. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will likely drop tomorrow morning only to increase again on Thursday afternoon. More than likely, the real active time period for the weather will then come after sunset on Thursday night when a combination of ingredients begins to destabilize the atmosphere in the Mid-Atlantic region.
Another contributing factor to the active weather expected on Thursday night in the Mid-Atlantic region will be a strong upper-level low pressure system that will enhance upward motion in the area. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
On Thursday, a potent upper-level low pressure system will cross the Great Lakes and it will help to push a warm front through the Mid-Atlantic region from south-to-north. This upper-level feature will have a supporting strong upper-level jet streak of 80+ knots and this system will tend to take on more of a neutral or “negatively-tilted” trough axis. These ingredients will enhance upward motion in the Mid-Atlantic region late tomorrow destabilizing the atmosphere which will have plenty of available moisture to tap into.
The bottom line is that conditions may be ripe for heavy downpours (and potential flash flooding) on Thursday night including the possibility of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. And all of that would follow whatever falls in terms of rainfall in the preceding 24 hours from this late this afternoon through tomorrow afternoon - and that can be significant in some spots. The threat of rain will then continue into the day on Friday; especially, along and east of Route I-95. Any lingering showers and storms on Friday should finally diminish by evening as the low pressure system pulls away and there is hope that the weekend could actually feature back-to-back rain-free days for a change in the Mid-Atlantic along with comfortably warm temperatures.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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