10:30 AM | ***Heavy showers and severe thunderstorms on the table for today and again late Thursday as the active weather pattern continues in the Mid-Atlantic region***
Paul Dorian
A line of showers and embedded strong-to-severe thunderstorms is likely later today near and along the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The main weather story getting attention this week in the Mid-Atlantic region is the heat that is coming for much of the second half. However, perhaps even more important is the threat of more heavy downpours and possible severe thunderstorms both today and likely again later Thursday. The overall active weather pattern is continuing in this part of the nation as waves of energy continue to rotate through the base of a large-scale upper-level trough.
One of the culprits for instability today in the Mid-Atlantic region will be a vorticity max (an area with “spin” in the atmosphere) and heavy showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms are likely to be the result for the mid-day and afternoon hours. Map courtesy NOAA/SPC, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
A vorticity maximum located this morning over central Pennsylvania is part of a overall setup that will increase instability in the atmosphere for the mid-day and afternoon hours and the result is likely to be the development of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. Any rain that falls today can be heavy at times with potential flash flooding and any thunderstorm that forms can reach severe levels with the possibility of powerful wind gusts, hail and even an isolated tornado. The areas in the Mid-Atlantic region with the most potential for severe weather is likely to be eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey/New York City, Delmarva Peninsula, and the Chesapeake Bay region where upward motion may be the strongest.
Yet another wave in the atmosphere will drop southeast from the Great Lakes on Thursday and it can generate more showers and thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic region. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Looking beyond today’s explosive weather situation, the mid-week will feature the arrival of hotter air from our southwest and temperatures on Wednesday afternoon should come close to the 90 degree mark for afternoon highs in the I-95 corridor…not all that far from seasonal norms. On Thursday, the full force of the incoming hotter air mass will be felt and temperatures can climb into the middle 90’s in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor – some of the hottest conditions so far this summer season – and the intense heat will return on Friday as well.
Severe weather is a possibility both today and on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region. Maps courtesy NOAA/SPC
In addition to the expected hot conditions on Thursday, there will be yet another threat of heavy showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms…most likely during the PM hours. With plenty of low-level moisture in place, another vorticity maximum will drop southeastward from the Great Lakes and enhance upward motion in the Mid-Atlantic region. This, in turn, will enhance the chance of shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and evening hours. As is the case for today, any rain that falls on Thursday can be heavy at times and any thunderstorm that forms can reach strong-to-severe levels. The weather calms down for Friday with respect to showers and storms and indeed the main weather story as we end the work week will be the intense heat. Relief in the heat comes this weekend to the Mid-Atlantic region with much more comfortable conditions by Sunday and Monday.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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