3:00 PM | ****Two systems to closely monitor for the northeastern states…one comes later Friday and the more impressive one to impact the region from Sunday night into Monday night****
Paul Dorian
An upper-level trough over the northeastern states on Friday will aid in the development of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain can be heavy and some of the storms will likely reach strong-to-severe levels. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
Overview
The weather has been rather tranquil during the past few days in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US following a very active extended stretch that included numerous heavy rain and strong thunderstorm events. The calm may be just about to wind down for the northeastern quadrant of the nation. A cold front will push through the Northeast US on Friday and it is likely to increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain later Friday can be heavy at times and some of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels. An even more impressive system will cross the Great Lakes from late Sunday into late Monday and it could produce another batch of heavy showers and severe thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
An influx of low-level moisture, an upper-level trough and a surface cool front will combine to generate Friday afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. Some of the rain on Friday can be heavy and some of the storms will likely reach strong-to-severe levels. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
Details
The weather has been quite nice in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during the past few days with comfortable temperatures and low humidity. While the temperatures will remain at comfortable levels on Friday, the humidity will climb with the intensification of a southerly flow of air. At the same time, a cold front will push eastward into the northeastern part of the nation and the combination of the two will likely result in some heavy shower and strong thunderstorm activity from Pennsylvania to New England. The best chance for severe storm activity is likely to be from central and northeastern PA to interior northern New England where upward motion will be enhanced by an upper-level trough moving overhead. This frontal system will then push off the east coast by Saturday morning paving the way for a decent weekend across the Mid-Atlantic/NE US.
An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will aid in the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms from late Sunday into Monday night. Some of the rain can be heavy and some of the storms will likely reach strong-to-severe levels. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
By late Sunday, an even more potent system will cross the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley and it will cause an increase upward motion in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from late Sunday into Monday night. Similar to Friday’s event, there will be a cold front pressing east towards the Mid-Atlantic/NE US and showers and thunderstorms will likely break out in advance of the front as early as by the end of the weekend. And - as is the case with tomorrow’s weather event - some of the rain early next week is liable to heavy and some of the storms are likely to reach strong-to-severe levels.
An influx of low-level moisture, an upper-level trough and a surface cool front will combine to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US from Sunday night into Monday night. Some of the rain can be heavy and some of the storms will likely reach strong-to-severe levels. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
The calm was nice while it lasted.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com