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11:45 AM | ***Strengthening low pressure to bring multiple impacts to the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast US…snow including possible squalls, rain, powerful winds, and another Arctic blast***

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11:45 AM | ***Strengthening low pressure to bring multiple impacts to the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast US…snow including possible squalls, rain, powerful winds, and another Arctic blast***

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front will barrel through the I-95 corridor region early Thursday morning and it could feature snow showers and perhaps even a heavier snow squall or two. Map courtesy NOAA

Overview

The month of December has gotten off to a cold start across much of the eastern half of the nation and it should stay colder-than-normal right through the upcoming weekend. A strengthening low pressure system will move across southern Canada during the next couple of days reaching the Canadian Maritime Provinces by late Thursday and this system and associated cold front will have multiple weather impacts on the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.  

To begin, this storm system is likely to add to the on-going “lake-effect” snows across the Great Lakes during the next couple of days and it will also produce some accumulating snow in the interior, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Even the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC-to-Boston can experience small accumulations of snow from later tomorrow night into Thursday with the combination of snow showers and perhaps even a heavier snow squall. In addition, winds will become a big factor with a stiffening southwesterly flow of air out ahead of the approaching strong cold front and then potentially damaging gusts to 50 mph or so from a northwesterly direction on Thursday following the passage of the front. One last impact will be the influx of another Arctic air mass that will flood the northeastern states riding into the region on those powerful NW winds and likely resulting in the lowest wind chills of the season so far.

Very strong winds predicted for the lower part of the atmosphere on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region are a red flag that NW wind gusts may reach 50 mph or so. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Details

Low pressure will push across southern Canada during the next couple of days in a general “west-to-east” fashion and it’ll strengthen markedly by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritime Provinces late Thursday. This low pressure system will have a trailing strong cold front that will slide across the I-95 corridor region during the early morning hours on Thursday and its passage will likely not go unnoticed. There can be snow and/or rain showers along the I-95 corridor later Wednesday night and snow shower activity on Thursday morning as the cold front surges towards the coast. There is even a chance that heavier snow squalls can form right along the advancing strong cold front potentially impacting the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor sometime early Thursday morning. Small accumulations are on the table in the I-95 corridor between later Wednesday night and late morning on Thursday as the cold front pushes through the region. And, as a word of caution, the ground is quite cold given the recent temperatures so any snow that does fall – even if only minor amounts - can quickly lead to slippery road conditions.

The pressure gradient will become quite intense on Thursday between departing strong low pressure to the northeast and an incoming high pressure system to the west. The result is likely to be NW wind gusts on the order of 50 mph or so in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US on Thursday with some of the lowest wind chills so far this season. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

In addition to the snow and/or rain, the winds will become a big factor during this upcoming weather event. Ahead of the strong cold front, winds will increase from a southwesterly direction from later tomorrow through much of tomorrow night and then they are likely to gust to 50 mph or so from a northwesterly direction on Thursday and Thursday night following the passage of the front. The pressure gradient between the departing low pressure system off to the north and east on Thursday and an incoming high pressure system to the west will intensify markedly leading to the powerful winds that can potentially bring down some trees and/or limbs leading to power outages.

While snowfall amounts are likely to be minor along the I-95 corridor during this upcoming weather event, there can be some slippery road conditions in some spots due to the recent cold temperature pattern. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics

One last impact during this upcoming weather event…the passage of the strong cold front will flood the Mid-Atlantic region with another Arctic air mass that will keep temperatures well below-normal on Thursday night and Friday and we’ll experience the lowest wind chill values so far this season. The below-normal temperatures will stick around through the upcoming weekend; however, it won’t feel nearly as harsh by the time we get to the second half of the weekend and temperatures will modify early next week. with the possibility of some rain in the northeastern states.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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