1:15 PM (Monday) | *A taste of fall for the Mid-Atlantic region...scattered strong storms to precede today’s frontal passage...Ernesto showing strength in the North Atlantic*
Paul Dorian
Hurricane Ernesto (center, left) has strengthened some today as it moves quite quickly over the North Atlantic with latest observations showing 90 mph maximum sustained winds (strong category 1 hurricane). Images courtesy NOAA/GOES-East
Overview
A taste of fall is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region for the Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday time period following the passage of a cold front later today. That frontal system will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and some of the storms can be on the strong side. Temperatures for the next few days should peak in the 70’s for afternoon highs all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor which is well below-normal for this time of year. Temperatures in the overnight hours will bottom in the lower 50’s in much of the I-95 corridor – coolest so far this season – and some spots could bottom out in the upper 40’s well to the northwest of the big cities.
Elsewhere, Ernesto has intensified slightly during the morning hours over the North Atlantic with latest observations showing 90 mph maximum sustained winds. This classifies Ernesto as a strong category 1 hurricane which is somewhat unusual in that it weakened to tropical storm status on Sunday after passing by the island of Bermuda. Ernesto will rush past Newfoundland later tonight and then it can very well impact Ireland/United Kingdom later in the week as an extratropical storm.
A beautiful air mass is headed to the Great lakes, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US for the Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday time period with temperatures well below-normal for this stage of August. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
An early preview of fall for the Mid-Atlantic region
A very comfortable air mass for this time of year is headed to the northeastern part of the nation and it will be ushered in by the passage of two cold frontal system...one later today and the second later tomorrow. Today’s frontal passage will be preceded by afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can be quite strong with brief heavy rainfall.
There will be a cold frontal passage later today in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US and it will be preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the PM storms can be on the strong side with brief heavy rainfall on the table. Map courtesy NOAA/SPC
Temperatures on Tuesday will peak in the low-to-mid 70’s along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor which is well below-normal for this time of year and humidity levels will be noticeably lower than today. In fact, the passage of the second front later tomorrow will usher in even drier air (and more comfortable) for tomorrow night with dew points likely dropping into the 40’s across much of the region. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will continue to be confined to the 70’s in DC, Philly and NYC and overnight lows can drop to near 50 degrees in many spots...even the upper 40’s is possible across some of the far northwestern and western suburbs. High pressure that has its origins over Canada late week will station itself over the northeastern states for the bulk of this week. Elsewhere, while the Great Lakes, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US enjoy this early taste of fall, the western Plains and Rocky Mountain States will suffer through some quite hot weather for the middle and latter parts of this week.
Hurricane Ernesto will move to the southeast of Newfoundland Canada later tonight and its remnants (circled region on forecast map) could have an impact on Ireland/United Kingdom later in the week.
Hurricane Ernesto
Ernesto is showing quite a bit of strength today over the North Atlantic as it becomes influenced by an upper-level trough system to its west. In fact, the maximum sustained winds of Ernesto are now up to 90 mph – a strong category 1 hurricane – which is a bit higher than the early morning observations. As is typical of tropical systems when they reach the higher latitudes, the forward speed of Ernesto has increased substantially in the past 24 hours...now at 28 mph in a northeasterly direction. On this track, Ernesto will track southeast of Newfoundland later tonight and could eventually have an impact on Ireland/United Kingdom later this week. After Ernesto, it appears as if the Atlantic Basin will become rather quiet for the next 7-10 days or so, but activity is sure to pick up as we head into September...the climatological peak month of the Atlantic tropical season.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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