**Hurricane threat for Louisiana with landfall later tomorrow...possibly as a "cat 2" storm...blocking scenario could result in low pressure near east coast early next week**
Paul Dorian
Tropical Storm Francine has undergone little in the way of intensification during the past 24 hours or so, but significant strengthening is likely to take place later tonight and on Wednesday as it heads towards the Louisiana coastline. Images courtesy NOAA/GOES-East
Overview
After a lengthy quiet period in the Atlantic Basin with no named tropical storms, Tropical Storm Francine was born early Monday over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but it has shown little in the way of additional intensification since then. However, all signs point to significant intensification of Francine from later tonight into the day on Wednesday...first into category 1 hurricane status and then possibly reaching category 2 classification later tomorrow as it approaches the Louisiana coastline. Odds favor Francine making landfall late tomorrow somewhere over the central portion of Louisiana’s coastline and its impact will be high all the way into the New Orleans metro area.
After landfall, Francine will slowly weaken on Thursday as it pushes northward over the southern Mississippi River Valley. Its northward progress will then grind to a halt by the end of the week somewhere over the middle Mississippi Valley region as it begins to become heavily influenced by very strong upper-level high pressure ridging that will park itself over the eastern part of Canada. The ultimate result in this atmospheric blocking scenario could be the formation of another low pressure system somewhere along the east coast in about a week’s time.
Details
After landfall, the remnants of Francine will push north for awhile. but then its northward advance will grind to a halt as it becomes influenced by very strong upper-level high pressure ridging over the eastern part of Canada. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
Tropical Storm Francine formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning and has shown little in the way of further intensification during the subsequent 24 hours with current maximum sustained winds observed at 65 mph. However, all signs point to significant intensification from later tonight into the day on Wednesday which could end up resulting in a category 2 hurricane making landfall by late Wednesday somewhere over the central Louisiana coastline. There has been a bit of an eastward shift in the expected track and this increases the chance for high impact in the New Orleans metro area. Favorable factors for significant intensification on Tuesday night and Wednesday include the likelihood for a low shear, high moisture environment all the while Francine moves over some very warm water featuring sea surface temperatures on the order of 87 or 88 degrees (F).
This “blocking” type of atmosphere may result in a halt to the northward advance of Francine’s remnants later this week and then the formation of low pressure near the east coast early next week. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
After landfall, the remnants of Francine will slowly weaken on Thursday as it heads in a general northerly direction over the southern Mississippi River Valley. By the end of the week, the remnants of Francine will grind to a halt in its northward progression somewhere over the middle Mississippi Valley as it becomes influenced by very strong upper-level high pressure ridging that builds across the eastern part of Canada. Rain associated with the remnants of Francine should reach the Upper Midwest by the end of the week, but it will have a hard time advancing any farther to the north and east at that time with the strong ridge of high pressure acting act as a barrier. There are signs that the tropical moisture field may instead redirect itself towards the Carolinas and nearby western Atlantic Ocean, and the end result of this blocking pattern in the atmosphere could be the redevelopment of low pressure early next week along the east coast…stay tuned.
Wind gusts of hurricane force levels are possible all the way into southeastern Louisiana (i.e., including the New Orleans metro area). Map courtesy Weather Bell Analytics, NOAA
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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