**Battle setting up for next week with cold, dense air up north and increasingly warm air down south...eventually, the cold air wins out and there is plenty of winter left in the tank**
Paul Dorian
A west-to-east frontal boundary zone will set up next week across the nation with cold, dense air on its north side and warmer, more humid air to the south. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
February can feature quite active weather across the nation with increasingly warm and humid air down across the southern states and some very cold Arctic air remaining up to the north. In fact, this kind of clash in the atmosphere appears to be setting up for next week which may lead to a storm system that features a wide range of precipitation types at mid-week from rain/thunderstorms in its warm sector to snow and ice in the cold sector. Eventually, it appears the cold air will “win” this battle and overspread the eastern half of the nation in about ten days or so. By the way, Sunday is Groundhog Day and - if I were Phil - I might be apt to see my shadow as it looks like there is plenty of cold air left in the tank for 6 more weeks of winter. Meanwhile, in the short-term, the month of January will end on a wet note in the Mid-Atlantic region with primarily a rain event from late tonight through Friday; however, accumulating snow is likely from interior New York State to New England where at least a few inches are on the table.
While the Mid-Atlantic region gets rain/freezing rain from later tonight into late Friday, much of the NE US from central NY to New England will receive accumulating snow on the order of at least a few inches. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
Lots of moisture is flowing northward today from the Gulf region and it is contributing to some heavy rainfall down across the south-central states. In fact, there can be some severe thunderstorm activity later today across eastern Texas and Louisiana in this relatively warm and humid air mass though a widespread outbreak of severe weather is not expected. This area of moisture will push northeastward during the day and head towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Rain is likely from late tonight through much of Friday across the Mid-Atlantic region where the month of January has been quite a bit drier-than-normal. It’ll be cold enough at the onset of the precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic (upstate PA, southern NY) for some freezing rain late tonight and early Friday morning. Farther to the north, the air will be cold enough for snow and at least a few inches are possible in the region from around central New York State to central New England.
Lots of colors on the 12Z GFS surface forecast map by the middle of next week with snow to the north (in blue), rain to the south (in green), sleet (purple) and freezing rain (pink) in between. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
By the end of the weekend and early part of next week, another low pressure system will head towards southeastern Canada and it is likely to be cold enough for snow across much of New York State and New England area where a few more inches can accumulate by later Monday. After that, moisture will begin to flow northward once again from the Gulf region into the Tennessee Valley and this area of moisture could reach the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week. Signs point to quite a battle in the atmosphere at this time between the cold, dense air across the northeastern states and warmer, more humid air to the south.
In about ten days or so, the cold air to the north may win this battle with the warm air to the south and simply overwhelm the eastern half of the nation. High pressure will build over Alaska and the overall wind flow over North America will allow for the transport of cold air masses from northern Canada into the central and eastern US. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
The result could be a wide range of precipitation types at mid-week across the Mid-Atlantic with snow and/or ice in portions of the northern half of the region and rain/thunderstorms in the southern half. This kind of scenario is usually quite difficult to forecast several days in advance as a slight shift to the north or south in the frontal boundary zone (i.e., the temperature gradient region) can have big implications in the weather for a particular area.
Eventually, it appears that the cold air to the north will win out in its battle with the warmer air to the south as intense high pressure builds upstream over Alaska. This, in turn, will allow for cold air masses from northern Canada to plunge into the central and eastern states meaning cold air may simply overwhelm the eastern half of the nation in about ten days or so. And one final note, Sunday is Groundhog Day (February 2nd) and - if I were Phil - I might be apt to see my shadow as it looks like there is plenty of cold air left in the tank for 6 more weeks of winter.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube
Video discussion: