12:20 PM | ***Severe weather today focused on Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf coast...threat shifts to the east coast on Wednesday***
Paul Dorian
A line of strong-to-severe thunderstorms is possible tomorrow afternoon in the Mid-Atlantic region which can produce damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall and potentially even some isolated tornadoes. Map courtesy NOAA, Weather Bell Analytics
Overview
Ingredients are in place for a severe weather outbreak today and tonight with its focus on the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf coast. There is a high risk of damaging wind gusts in this scenario and tornadoes are certainly on the table with the possibility of a few strong ones. This threat shifts to the east coast on Wednesday where damaging wind gusts, heavy downpours, and even isolated tornadoes will be a possibility from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast US.
A key ingredient to the high probability of damaging wind gusts both today (Lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast) and tomorrow (eastern seaboard) are very strong low-level winds that can be translated to the surface-level during strong thunderstorm activity. Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
Several ingredients are coming into place for a severe weather outbreak from later today into tonight with a focus on the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf coast. An “enhanced” risk of severe weather extends over a large region from Louisiana to Alabama on the south side to central Arkansas on the north side. The ingredients include a strengthening low pressure system now over the central Plains, a vigorous low-level jet, and an impressive vorticity maxima sliding eastward across the south-central states. This combination will lead to significant upward motion through the afternoon and evening across the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf coast resulting in the risk of severe weather over a large area.
The main severe weather risk on Wednesday along the east coast will be damaging wind gusts; however, the threat of tornadoes will not be insignificant. This forecast map for tomorrow afternoon indicates “updraft helicity” (spinning motion) will be on the table for places like southeastern Virginia which can lead to isolated tornadic activity. Map courtesy NOAA, Weather Bell Analytics
In the cold sector of the intensifying storm system, accumulating snow will fall during the next 24 hours or so with several inches possible from Nebraska to Wisconsin and winds will be strong enough to produce blizzard conditions. Blizzard warnings have indeed been issued in many areas from the central to northern Plains and can extend to the western Great Lakes by later tonight.
A strong vorticity field will enhance upward motion later today and tonight across the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf coast leading to a wide area with the potential of severe weather. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
On Wednesday, the threat of severe weather will shift to the eastern seaboard with damaging wind gusts a high concern -aided by powerful low-level winds - and there can be isolated tornadoes as well. The greatest chance of severe weather will be across the eastern Carolinas, but all coastal areas from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast US can get in on some of the action. In the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, the threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms will likely begin during the mid-day hours and can continue into the evening. This storm system will likely feature multiple bands of rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Wednesday night and there will quite likely be some downpours included in the overall event.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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