***A run to 100 degrees on the horizon for the DC-to-Boston corridor...a surge of high heat early-to-middle of next week***
Paul Dorian
Very strong upper-level ridging will form in the eastern states early next week leading to a surge of heat in the DC-to-Boston corridor during the Sunday-Wednesday time period. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
Overview
Father’s Day turned out to be very cool across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US with some spots nearly 20 degrees below normal for the middle of June and today will be much the same. Temperatures will rebound dramatically by the middle of this week with highs in the 90’s on the table by Thursday afternoon along the DC-to-Boston corridor. The warm-up at mid-week comes ahead of a strong cold front which can produce strong-to-severe thunderstorms by later Thursday or Thursday night.
After backing off slightly for the end of the week and beginning of the weekend, temperatures are likely to surge in the DC-to-Boston corridor during the early and middle parts of next week with a run to 100 degrees possible in the big cities along Route I-95. Very strong upper-level ridging which has been largely confined to the western states in recent days will push to a position centered over the eastern states early next week and temperatures will respond in a dramatic fashion.
A surge of heat reaches the eastern states during the early and middle parts of next week as strong upper-level ridging of high pressure develops overhead. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
Father’s Day recap
The high temperature on Sunday, Father’s Day, at Philly International Airport (PHL) was 64 degrees which is 19 degrees below the normal high of 84 degrees. In fact, the entire I-95 stretch from DC-to-Boston experienced high temperatures on Sunday that were way below normal for June 15th thanks in large part to an ocean flow of air that dominated the scene in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and this will continue to keep it unusually cool on Monday. (Sunday highs vs normal in DC: 72 degrees/84 degrees; Central Park (NYC): 64 degrees/80 degrees; Boston: 64 degrees/77 degrees).
A strong cold front will approach the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Thursday potentially leading to severe thunderstorm activity late in the day and at night. Map courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com
Dramatic rebound in temperatures on Wednesday…severe thunderstorm threat late Thursday
Temperatures will rebound dramatically in the I-95 corridor at mid-week and Thursday afternoon could feature highs in the lower 90’s in the big cities from DC-to-Boston. This brief surge of temperatures at mid-week will come ahead of an approaching strong cold front that will drop southeast across the Great Lakes later this week. This frontal system is likely to generate some severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region/Northeast US later Thursday and Thursday night.
A recent model run by the Euro features high temperatures at or even slightly above the 100 degree mark in Philadelphia (PHL) during the early-to-middle parts of next week. Histogram plot courtesy ECMWF, weathermodels.com
Surge of heat unfolds…first across the central US and then in the eastern US
After the cold frontal passage on Thursday night, temperatures may back off slightly in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US for the following couple of days to end the week and begin the weekend. However, changes in the atmosphere across the middle of the country at this time will lay the groundwork for a surge of temperatures in the eastern states. High pressure ridging will push from the nation’s mid-section to the eastern states from later this weekend into early next week. As the high shifts to the east, temperatures will first surge across the Plains on Saturday (the first full day of summer) with a broad flow of air from the southwestern US to the Northern Plains/western Great Lakes. This rush of hot air will reach the eastern states in the Sunday/Monday time frame leading to a possible run to 100 degrees for afternoon highs in the DC-to-Boston corridor during the Sunday-Wednesday time period.
Bottom line...the unseasonably cool conditions of Father’s Day in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US will be nothing but a fond memory in about a week’s time.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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