1:00 PM (Monday) - ***It’s déjà vu all over again...strong storms and flooding downpours on the table***
Paul Dorian
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely by later today and early tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region with tropical downpours on the table and there can be isolated damaging winds. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The combination of a tropical air mass, a slow-moving surface cold front, and an upper-level disturbance raises the chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region. And, as has been the case quite often in recent days, some of the storms can be strong-to-severe and flooding downpours are on the table with a few inches possible in some spots in a short period of time. While flash-flooding is the greatest concern in this scenario, isolated damaging wind gusts are also possible later today associated with “downburst-type” thunderstorm activity. Looking ahead, the next several days are likely to remain very warm, humid, and unsettled with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
All it takes is a “short-wave” in the upper part of the atmosphere to set off the development of showers and thunderstorms in this tropical environment and that is what we are dealing with today in the Mid-Atlantic region (circled region). Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
The atmosphere is destabilizing this afternoon daytime heating approaches its peak for the day and an upper-level shortwave edges eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region. Showers and thunderstorms are now popping in parts of the area, and the intensity and coverage should increase markedly during the next few hours. Thunderstorms that form in this tropical environment will tend to be slow-movers and capable of producing more than 2 inches of rain per hour with localized amounts of 3-5 inches possible. Any rain that falls will come on well-saturated grounds raising the concern for flash-flooding conditions which has been a rather persistent problem in recent weeks.
The risk is high in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor for some excessive rainfall later today and tonight which can cause localized flash-flooding conditions. Map courtesy NOAA/SPC
In terms of winds, while widespread damage is not likely, there certainly can be some “downdraft-related” high wind gusts potentially producing damage in isolated spots later today and early tonight. Looking ahead, it may be a repeat performance on Tuesday with the chance of afternoon and evening heavy showers and strong thunderstorms as today’s slow-moving frontal system stalls out nearby. Heat and humidity for the week will likely peak on Thursday and Friday with lower 90’s possible for afternoon highs, and the unsettled weather pattern will continue with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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