**An Arctic front arrives on Sunday with possible snow...another snow threat on Monday...much warmer by next weekend with a taste of spring...polar vortex split and possible downstream implications**
Paul Dorian
A strong Arctic cold front arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and it may be accompanied by snow; especially, in areas to the north of the PA/MD border. After a very mild Saturday, temperatures will begin to trend downward on Sunday, and by the time Monday rolls around, Arctic air will be fully entrenched in the Mid-Atlantic region. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
An active weather pattern brought a clipper system to the north of the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday and another low-pressure is sliding to the south of the region today with little or no impact. A strong Arctic cold front will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday, and it can produce some snow; especially, to the north of the PA/MD border. Yet another low-pressure system will push into the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday and - with fresh Arctic air in place - snow is possible; especially, to the south of the PA/MD border.
Once that early week Arctic air mass retreats to the north, much warmer air from the middle of the country will likely succeed in pushing into the Mid-Atlantic region, and the weekend of the 7th and 8th can bring a real taste of spring with way above-normal temperatures. The big-time warmup that begins by the end of next week should last well into the second week of March; however, we’ll have to monitor potential impact to the overall temperature pattern of a stratospheric polar vortex split that should take place later next week. In recent history, an early March polar vortex split has generally resulted in colder-than-normal weather across the eastern states from around the middle of March to the middle of April.
Low pressure may head to the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday and with Arctic air in place, any precipitation from this system is very likely to be in the form of snow. Odds currently appear to be higher for snow to fall on Monday to the south of the PA/MD border, but we’ll see how this plays out in coming days. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Next Arctic front arrives on Sunday…a couple of snow threats
It’ll turn slightly milder on Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region and then noticeably milder on Saturday ahead of the next strong cold front. This next cold front should come through on Sunday – potentially with some snow especially across the northern Mid-Atlantic region – and it’ll usher in a fresh Arctic air mass for the early part of next week. By Monday, another low-pressure will push eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region and with Arctic air in place, any precipitation associated with this system is likely to be in the form of snow…even south of the PA/MD border in places like Washington, D.C. and Baltimore. The Arctic air mass will be anchored by strong, cold high pressure to the north early next week...a great setup for frozen precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region. Yet another low-pressure system could then move eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame and with the Arctic air mass beginning a retreat to the north, rain and/or ice will likely get into the mix.
A big-time warm up is coming to the northeastern states…at least it looks that way from this vantage point (many prior attempts have failed). In fact, the warm-up that is likely to begin late next week may intensify dramatically during the weekend of the 7th and 8th with 70+ degree temperatures on the table in some areas. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell
Big-time warmup on the way
By later next week, the Arctic air mass will have fully retreated to the north, and this will open the door for much milder air in the middle of the country to push to the northeastern states. It looks like this warmup will indeed succeed in its attempt to reach the northeastern states (many earlier attempts have failed) and there may just be a true taste of spring in the Mid-Atlantic region during the weekend of the 7th and 8th with temperatures in the 70’s on the table in some areas. This big-time warmup that begins late next week should then last well into the second week of March although the “dreaded backdoor cold front” always could mess things up this time of year.
A stratospheric polar vortex split is likely to take place later next week with one piece headed to the North American side of the North Pole and a second part re-positioned to over Asian continent. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell
Stratospheric polar vortex split
By the latter part of the second week of March, we’ll have to monitor the possibility of impact on the overall temperature pattern in the eastern states from an expected stratospheric polar vortex split. The “split” should take place during the latter part of next week and downstream implications in terms of temperatures in the eastern states could take place from the latter part of March into the month of April. In fact, recent history has featured a colder-than-normal period from around the middle of March to the middle of April when an early March polar vortex split has taken place...we’ll just have to wait and see how this one plays out.
After a big-time warmup in the eastern states, there is the chance for a return to colder-than-normal conditions by the latter part of the second week of March. If this were indeed to take place, a major contributing factor could be the stratospheric polar vortex split that is likely to take place later next week with downstream implications to the overall temperature pattern. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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