Water temperatures have climbed to well above normal levels in the tropical Pacific Ocean putting this on-going El Nino event into “very strong” category assuming these anomalies are maintained for a sustained period of time...virtually a certainty. In fact, this El Nino event will likely be ranked amongst the great events during the past fifty years or so including 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016 and indeed, there is a chance that when all is said and done, it may match with some of the greats going back to the 1800’s (e.g., 1877-1878). (By the way, and this is in the speculation phase on my part, I believe we may bounce back later next year to a strong La Nina considering we’ve been in a La Nina base state for the past several years with 5 of the last 6 winters featuring La Nina conditions).
Odds are quite high that El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific will last into the winter season of 2026-2027 before it likely weakens next spring. As such, the upcoming winter can be greatly impacted by El Nino with the possible outcomes of numerous strong storms (due to the activation of the southern jet), markedly colder-than-normal temperatures across the southern US, and warmer-than-normal conditions in many of the northern states. There are many variables yet to be factored in; however, before we can have high confidence in any winter outlook and interactions between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans to the El Nino event in the Pacific are still unknown.
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El Nino continues to intensify across the central Pacific Ocean with sea surface temperatures rising to their highest levels so far this summer season. In fact, the latest water temperatures in the region known as “3.4” are now more than two degrees above-normal which places this El Nino event into the “strong” category and, when all is said and done, it’ll likely rival the greats of recent history including 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016.
In comparison with the sea surface temperatures anomalies for the full month of July with the El Nino episode of 2015-2016, many similarities appear on the maps. This specific comparison will be interesting to follow in coming months to determine if 2015-2016 could be used as an analog year for the upcoming winter outlook and provide us with some clues as to what we might expect late this year and early next year. Interestingly, the last blizzard that produced 2 feet of snow all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor took place in late January of 2016 during the late stages of that El Nino event.
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El Nino continues to intensify across most regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean with well above-normal water temperatures that continue to rise rather sharply in recent weeks. In fact, all indications suggest that the overall magnitude of this unfolding El Nino will rival some of the great ones in recent history including those in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016. The warmer-than-normal water across the Pacific Ocean is likely to lead to a very active next couple of months in terms of overall tropical activity and even the Hawaiian Islands may be impacted by a direct hit.
At the same time, colder-than-normal water currently exists across what is known as the “Main Development Region” of the Atlantic Ocean in terms of tropical activity, and this inhibiting factor combined with El Nino in the Pacific Ocean will likely lead to a quieter-than-normal season in the Atlantic Basin. Looking ahead, it appears El Nino will not only have an important impact on the near-term tropical seasons but potentially have a significant impact on the winter season of 2026.2027. Numerous computer forecast models suggest El Nino conditions will peak during the fall season and will last right into the early spring of 2027.
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The summer season is upon us, and probabilities are quite high that overall temperatures in the Arctic region will be at or below normal if long-term trends hold true. In fact, temperatures in the Arctic region during the first half of June are at historically low levels when compared to any year back to 1958 which is when data records began for this area. Interestingly, water temperatures in portions of the Atlantic Ocean have cooled off quite noticeably during the past year or so and cooler-than-normal water in the Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic can have an inhibiting effect on tropical activity. Perhaps this change in water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the drastic start to the summer season with respect to temperatures in the Arctic is signaling an upcoming change in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which has been in a “positive” phase since the middle 1990’s.
“Normal” temperatures in the Arctic region during the summer season are right around the 32 degree (F) freezing mark and as long as temperatures average at or below normal, additional melting of Arctic sea ice will have its limitations. Meanwhile, the other nine months of the year in the Arctic region have consistently featured above normal temperatures in recent years. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern in the Arctic region featuring nearly normal to below-normal summertime conditions and warmer-than-normal weather during the coldest nine months of the year is increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.
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The summer season is upon us, and probabilities are quite high that overall temperatures in the Arctic region will be at or below normal if long-term trends hold true. In fact, temperatures in the Arctic region during the first half of June are at historically low levels when compared to any year back to 1958 which is when data records began for this area. Interestingly, water temperatures in portions of the Atlantic Ocean have cooled off quite noticeably during the past year or so and cooler-than-normal water in the Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic can have an inhibiting effect on tropical activity. Perhaps this change in water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the drastic start to the summer season with respect to temperatures in the Arctic is signaling an upcoming change in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which has been in a “positive” phase since the middle 1990’s.
“Normal” temperatures in the Arctic region during the summer season are right around the 32 degree (F) freezing mark and as long as temperatures average at or below normal, additional melting of Arctic sea ice will have its limitations. Meanwhile, the other nine months of the year in the Arctic region have consistently featured above normal temperatures in recent years. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern in the Arctic region featuring nearly normal to below-normal summertime conditions and warmer-than-normal weather during the coldest nine months of the year is increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.
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As noted in the 2026 Tropical Outlook, El Nino is going to be a major player with respect to the upcoming tropical season in the Atlantic Basin and signs are increasingly pointing to one of the strongest episodes in the last 50 years. The most powerful El Nino events in recent history took place in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and during 2015-2016, and this upcoming occurrence could rival all of them in terms of its magnitude. Not only have surface water temperatures climbed dramatically in recent days across the tropical Pacific Ocean, but some very warm water relative-to-normal lurks just beneath the surface…and it is “bubbling” up to the top. El Nino will have worldwide impacts during the summer and fall seasons and likely be a big inhibiting factor to the Atlantic Basin tropical season due to increased subsidence and wind shear (hostile conditions for tropical systems). Should El Nino continue into the first part of 2027 - and odds are quite good from this vantage point - it could have big implications on the winter season across the continental US...something we’ll monitor in the months to come.
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The number of named tropical storms in 2026 is likely to be slightly below normal in the Atlantic Basin due mainly to water temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The average number of named tropical storms in an Atlantic Basin tropical season is 14.4 with 7.2 of those reaching hurricane status, and 3.2 attaining “major” designation of category 3 or higher. Based on the overall analysis of current and forecasted atmospheric and oceanic conditions, I expect to see around 12 named storms in the Atlantic Basin this tropical season with about 6 of those reaching hurricane status and of those perhaps 2 to achieve “major” classification level.
Two important factors in this year’s tropical outlook include the expected development of an El Nino episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean featuring warmer-than-normal water, and colder-than-normal water in portions of the Atlantic Ocean’s Main Development Region (MDR). Both sea surface temperature patterns would tend to inhibit tropical storm formation and intensification in the Atlantic Basin. In terms of summertime weather conditions across the continental US, I expect much of the nation to be cooler-than-normal and it is a mixed picture when it comes to precipitation with wetter-than-normal weather likely for the northeastern states and generally drier-than-normal conditions across the central states.
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Below-normal sea surface temperatures continue this month across much of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, but there are signs that this La Nina episode is about to enter “ENSO-neutral” status, and then likely flip to El Nino conditions by the early part of the summer (tropical) season. A change from La Nina to El Nino across the equatorial Pacific Ocean can have big implications for the upcoming Atlantic Basin tropical season. Indeed, warmer-than-normal water associated with an El Nino episode in the tropical Pacific is often an inhibiting factor for tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. This is due to increased wind shear in the atmosphere; especially over the Caribbean Sea during typical El Nino summer seasons, and this inhibits the development and intensification of tropical storms. A second potential inhibiting factor for tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin this summer is the chance that colder-than-normal water will develop across much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean according to some longer-range forecast models.
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The 2025 hurricane season is winding down across the Northern Hemisphere, and it has been the second straight season with below-normal activity as measured by the metric known as the “Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)”. The most important region when it comes to tropical activity in the Northern Hemisphere is the western half of the Pacific Ocean as it features the highest ACE value of any sector from a climatological point-of view and it was well below-normal for the 2025 tropical season. In the Atlantic Basin, tropical activity ended up slightly above the normal in terms of ACE thanks in large part to the end-of-season blockbuster hurricane named “Melissa” which reached category 5 status and lasted for a lengthy period. However, there were no landfalling hurricanes in the US for the first time since 2015, and the number of hurricanes (5) was below the long-term average of 7.2.
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It is likely that Arctic sea ice extent has reached its minimum for the year which is slightly higher than last year’s level and well above the record minimum amount observed in 2012. Temperatures in the Arctic region during the just ended summer season continued to follow a very consistent pattern of recent years, measuring nearly normal to slightly colder than normal. It is the temperatures in the summer months of June, July, and August which are critical when it comes to Arctic sea ice extent as this is the melting season up in that part of the world. Arctic sea ice extent has been running at below-normal levels since the middle 1990’s; however, it has shown resiliency for the last dozen years or so both in terms extent and in volume. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern across the Arctic region featuring nearly normal to slightly below-normal levels in the summer season and warmer-than-normal conditions during the coldest nine months of the year is the increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.
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