The summer season is upon us, and probabilities are quite high that overall temperatures in the Arctic region will be at or below normal if long-term trends hold true. In fact, temperatures in the Arctic region during the first half of June are at historically low levels when compared to any year back to 1958 which is when data records began for this area. Interestingly, water temperatures in portions of the Atlantic Ocean have cooled off quite noticeably during the past year or so and cooler-than-normal water in the Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic can have an inhibiting effect on tropical activity. Perhaps this change in water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the drastic start to the summer season with respect to temperatures in the Arctic is signaling an upcoming change in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which has been in a “positive” phase since the middle 1990’s.
“Normal” temperatures in the Arctic region during the summer season are right around the 32 degree (F) freezing mark and as long as temperatures average at or below normal, additional melting of Arctic sea ice will have its limitations. Meanwhile, the other nine months of the year in the Arctic region have consistently featured above normal temperatures in recent years. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern in the Arctic region featuring nearly normal to below-normal summertime conditions and warmer-than-normal weather during the coldest nine months of the year is increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.
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The summer season is upon us, and probabilities are quite high that overall temperatures in the Arctic region will be at or below normal if long-term trends hold true. In fact, temperatures in the Arctic region during the first half of June are at historically low levels when compared to any year back to 1958 which is when data records began for this area. Interestingly, water temperatures in portions of the Atlantic Ocean have cooled off quite noticeably during the past year or so and cooler-than-normal water in the Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic can have an inhibiting effect on tropical activity. Perhaps this change in water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the drastic start to the summer season with respect to temperatures in the Arctic is signaling an upcoming change in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which has been in a “positive” phase since the middle 1990’s.
“Normal” temperatures in the Arctic region during the summer season are right around the 32 degree (F) freezing mark and as long as temperatures average at or below normal, additional melting of Arctic sea ice will have its limitations. Meanwhile, the other nine months of the year in the Arctic region have consistently featured above normal temperatures in recent years. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern in the Arctic region featuring nearly normal to below-normal summertime conditions and warmer-than-normal weather during the coldest nine months of the year is increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.
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As noted in the 2026 Tropical Outlook, El Nino is going to be a major player with respect to the upcoming tropical season in the Atlantic Basin and signs are increasingly pointing to one of the strongest episodes in the last 50 years. The most powerful El Nino events in recent history took place in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and during 2015-2016, and this upcoming occurrence could rival all of them in terms of its magnitude. Not only have surface water temperatures climbed dramatically in recent days across the tropical Pacific Ocean, but some very warm water relative-to-normal lurks just beneath the surface…and it is “bubbling” up to the top. El Nino will have worldwide impacts during the summer and fall seasons and likely be a big inhibiting factor to the Atlantic Basin tropical season due to increased subsidence and wind shear (hostile conditions for tropical systems). Should El Nino continue into the first part of 2027 - and odds are quite good from this vantage point - it could have big implications on the winter season across the continental US...something we’ll monitor in the months to come.
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The number of named tropical storms in 2026 is likely to be slightly below normal in the Atlantic Basin due mainly to water temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The average number of named tropical storms in an Atlantic Basin tropical season is 14.4 with 7.2 of those reaching hurricane status, and 3.2 attaining “major” designation of category 3 or higher. Based on the overall analysis of current and forecasted atmospheric and oceanic conditions, I expect to see around 12 named storms in the Atlantic Basin this tropical season with about 6 of those reaching hurricane status and of those perhaps 2 to achieve “major” classification level.
Two important factors in this year’s tropical outlook include the expected development of an El Nino episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean featuring warmer-than-normal water, and colder-than-normal water in portions of the Atlantic Ocean’s Main Development Region (MDR). Both sea surface temperature patterns would tend to inhibit tropical storm formation and intensification in the Atlantic Basin. In terms of summertime weather conditions across the continental US, I expect much of the nation to be cooler-than-normal and it is a mixed picture when it comes to precipitation with wetter-than-normal weather likely for the northeastern states and generally drier-than-normal conditions across the central states.
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Below-normal sea surface temperatures continue this month across much of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, but there are signs that this La Nina episode is about to enter “ENSO-neutral” status, and then likely flip to El Nino conditions by the early part of the summer (tropical) season. A change from La Nina to El Nino across the equatorial Pacific Ocean can have big implications for the upcoming Atlantic Basin tropical season. Indeed, warmer-than-normal water associated with an El Nino episode in the tropical Pacific is often an inhibiting factor for tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. This is due to increased wind shear in the atmosphere; especially over the Caribbean Sea during typical El Nino summer seasons, and this inhibits the development and intensification of tropical storms. A second potential inhibiting factor for tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin this summer is the chance that colder-than-normal water will develop across much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean according to some longer-range forecast models.
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The 2025 hurricane season is winding down across the Northern Hemisphere, and it has been the second straight season with below-normal activity as measured by the metric known as the “Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)”. The most important region when it comes to tropical activity in the Northern Hemisphere is the western half of the Pacific Ocean as it features the highest ACE value of any sector from a climatological point-of view and it was well below-normal for the 2025 tropical season. In the Atlantic Basin, tropical activity ended up slightly above the normal in terms of ACE thanks in large part to the end-of-season blockbuster hurricane named “Melissa” which reached category 5 status and lasted for a lengthy period. However, there were no landfalling hurricanes in the US for the first time since 2015, and the number of hurricanes (5) was below the long-term average of 7.2.
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It is likely that Arctic sea ice extent has reached its minimum for the year which is slightly higher than last year’s level and well above the record minimum amount observed in 2012. Temperatures in the Arctic region during the just ended summer season continued to follow a very consistent pattern of recent years, measuring nearly normal to slightly colder than normal. It is the temperatures in the summer months of June, July, and August which are critical when it comes to Arctic sea ice extent as this is the melting season up in that part of the world. Arctic sea ice extent has been running at below-normal levels since the middle 1990’s; however, it has shown resiliency for the last dozen years or so both in terms extent and in volume. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern across the Arctic region featuring nearly normal to slightly below-normal levels in the summer season and warmer-than-normal conditions during the coldest nine months of the year is the increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.
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The month of July so far has been warmer-than-normal across much of the nation, but it will certainly have a difficult time matching the extreme and sustained heat of July 1936. In fact, one of the most widespread and destructive heat waves ever recorded in the US took place in the summer of 1936 which fell right in the middle of arguably the hottest and driest decade ever for the nation.
The decade of the 1930’s is renowned for the “Great Depression” and the “Dust Bowl”, both of which caused calamitous human suffering in this country. Not only were huge numbers of crops destroyed by the heat and lack of moisture in the “Dust Bowl” era, but thousands of lives were lost as a result of the heat, drought and economic hardship. This extreme heat wave was particularly deadly in high population areas where air conditioning was still in the early stages of development. The heat wave experienced in 1936 began in late June, reached a peak in July, and didn’t really come to an end until September. Many of the all-time high temperature records that were set in the 1930’s in numerous cities and states still stand today.
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The high temperature later today at the Furnace Creek Visitor’s Center in Death Valley National Park, California will be around 120°F and while this is extremely hot, it will be well short of the observation there on this date in 1913. On July 10th, 1913, the weather observer at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley recorded a high temperature of 134°F and one hundred and twelve years later, this is still the highest air temperature ever reliably recorded on Earth. In addition to this all-time and worldwide high temperature record, the wild weather year of 1913 produced numerous other extreme events.
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The Northern Hemisphere saw its first hurricane of the season on Monday in the eastern Pacific Ocean, but overall, the 2025 tropical season is off to a relatively quiet start. In fact, there are reports that this is the latest time since 1993 for the first hurricane to develop in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, the western Pacific Ocean hasn’t seen a named storm so far this tropical season and there are (unconfirmed) reports that this may be the latest time ever for that to take place. In the Atlantic Basin, it is still quite early in the season and there has been no activity so far, but there is the possibility of a tropical system in about a week to ten days or so across the southwestern Gulf of America or northwestern Caribbean Sea.
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