Temperatures are running at nearly normal levels this summer in the Arctic region and this has been a very consistent trend in the 21st Century during the months of June, July and August. Meanwhile, temperatures during the remaining nine months of the year have been regularly measured at well above-normal levels in the Arctic region. It is the summer season, however, that is especially important with respect to Arctic sea ice as this is the melting time of year in the region. Temperatures during the summer season in the Arctic typically average just slightly above the freezing mark whereas during the rest of the year - though usually well above the climatological averages - they usually are way below freezing with minimal impact on ice melt. As long as Arctic temperatures remain nearly normal during the summer (melting) season, the chance for a significant drop off in sea ice will be limited. Indeed, given this consistent temperature trend in recent decades, Arctic sea ice has shown resiliency both in terms extent and in volume. One possible explanation of this reliable temperature pattern across the Arctic this century has to do with increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.
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Despite the fact that the state of Florida suffered through direct impact by two hurricanes in just a six-week time period, the Atlantic Basin as a whole featured below-normal tropical activity in 2022 as measured by a metric known as the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). In addition, the entire Northern Hemisphere experienced below-normal tropical activity this year and - as was the case last year - the quieter-than-normal Pacific Ocean led the way to those favorable hemisphere-wide results. In terms of tornadoes, more good news in 2022 as it has been another below-normal year in the US and, once again, there were no EF-5’s observed (i.e., most powerful type of tornado). Finally, with respect to wildfires, it was a quieter year in California than the past few with some well-timed rainfall. The trend in the number of wildfires across the entire US continues to be downward for the past 15 years despite an uptick nationwide in 2022.
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Hurricane Kay has been downgraded to tropical storm status in the overnight hours as it moves roughly parallel to the northwestern coast of Baja California and it will push farther away and continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. However, despite the weakening and the push away from the coast, Tropical Storm Kay will combine with strong high pressure to the north to generate some significant rain and wind across southern California today, tonight and tomorrow. In fact, bands of rain can produce as much as 6 inches in some spots with flash flooding and wind gusts across southern California can reach 60+ mph during this event.
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The Desert Southwest has been anything but “desert-like” in recent weeks with copious amounts of rainfall associated with the annual monsoon season in the states of Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and Colorado. Monsoons are well known in eastern Asia, but they also occur in other parts of the world including right here in the southwestern US. The typical time for the monsoon season in this country is from about mid-June to the end of September and it certainly got off to a quick start this year. In addition to monsoonal-aided rainfall, there will soon be an influx of tropical moisture that will contribute to additional heavy rainfall across the Southwest US and flash flooding is a serious concern.
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Arctic sea ice extent has been running at below-normal levels since the middle 1990’s at which time there was a shift in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to one featuring warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. The Arctic sea ice extent headed downward after that shift and reached its lowest point about ten years ago in 2012. Since then, the Arctic sea ice has shown some resiliency and is actually not all that far from normal for this time of year.
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La Nina conditions have dominated the scene in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean for this winter season as it did for the prior winter season of 2020-2021. Numerous computer models suggest that these colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will last into at least the beginning part of the upcoming summer season. If so, La Nina may indeed have an impact on global tropical activity this summer as it did during the last tropical season in 2021. In addition to its impact on tropical activity in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, these back-to-back La Nina episodes have seemingly affected global temperatures during the past many months which have dropped to nearly normal levels in the latest monthly reading.
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On the heels of the Nor’easter that brought tremendous snowfall to many coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US, Arctic air plunged southward all the way down to southern Florida bringing that state some of its lowest temperatures in more than a decade. According to accuweather.com, a record low of 46 degrees was set on Sunday morning at Marathon, Florida, records were tied at Fort Pierce and Vero Beach, and it fell to the freezing mark as far south as Big Cypress National Preserve. In fact, it got so cold across Florida on Sunday morning that cold-shocked iguanas were actually falling out of trees. These cold-blooded lizards usually survive a “cold-shock” like this when temperatures fall into the 30’s or 40’s and “wake up” as temperatures rise. The Arctic air that plunged into southern Florida this weekend had its origins way up in the southern part of Alaska.
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The Tonga volcanic eruption in mid-January, was the most powerful experienced on Earth in 30 years and the resultant ash cloud is still being studied to determine if it can have an impact on global climate. There was an immediate impact in the atmosphere by the eruption as pressure spikes were noted on barographs all around the world and even some evidence that these surges continued for several days later. Satellite imagery has shown that the ash cloud reached record high altitudes, but it is still unclear as to exactly how high up it penetrated and whether the amount deposited into those layers will be enough to impact global temperatures. The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines – the second most powerful eruption of the 20th century – did indeed cool down the planet for a couple of years.
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There is calm right now across much of the western US, but that will begin to change dramatically over the next 24 hours or so. A series of storms will impact much of the western states for an extended period of time beginning later today and continuing right through the upcoming weekend. These storms will bring significant rainfall to low-lying coastal sections from southwest Canada to California and substantial snowfall to higher elevation inland locations to be ultimately measured by the foot in many spots. In addition, severe cold will filter southward from western Canada this weekend into the Pacific Northwest and this could result in single digit cold for places like Seattle and Portland by early next week.
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Temperatures have already peaked today in Fairbanks, Alaska and are currently right around the zero degree mark and they are very likely to stay below zero during the entire time for at least the next week or so. In fact, low temperatures this weekend are likely to be near 25 degrees below zero in the midst of an on-going intense cold spell that may last right into December and will no doubt result in additional broken records. While Alaska is normally quite cold this time of year, these temperatures are well below normal in many cases - quite a contrast from recent years - and some spots are likely to end up with their coldest November on record.
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