The first ten days of May have featured below normal temperatures in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor (DC: -3.9°F, PHL: -5.0°F, NYC: -5.8°F) and more cold air is coming for the latter part of the weekend and the early part of next week. In fact, overnight low temperatures could drop into the 30’s early next week in some suburban locations along I-95. Looking down the road, it appears this consistently chilly weather pattern of late will dramatically change in about ten days or so and we could very well experience hot weather by late May as we approach the Memorial Day holiday weekend. In addition, there are signs that the tropics could become active for the first time this season by the end of May in a year that should be more active than recent years in the Atlantic Basin (Tropical Outlook).
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A warm frontal system has stalled out in the region and it’ll keep us somewhat unsettled for the next couple of days. High pressure well to our north will expand southward today, but it looks like its influence will hold mainly to areas north of the PA/MD border. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will be renewed as we close out the work week by another frontal system that approaches from our northwest. Additional showers are likely on Saturday afternoon as yet another frontal system arrives and then chilly air for this time of year will arrive for Sunday.
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A frontal system will meander in the area during the next few days keeping us unsettled with a frequent shower threat. A cold front will approach by Friday and is likely to generate showers and thunderstorms at the end of the work week. More showers are likely on Saturday with the approach of a cold front and chilly air for this time of year will move in on Sunday.
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A warm front is stalling out in the area today and this will lead to an unsettled week with multiple shots at showers including as we begin the new work week. A cold front will approach late in the week and that will lead to the best chance for significant rainfall as showers and thunderstorms are likely as we close out the work week.
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A strong coastal storm will produce copious amounts of rain today in the Mid-Atlantic region as our "stuck-in-place" cool and unsettled weather pattern continues. Rain will be heavy at times today and there can be some strong thunderstorms that form this afternoon and coastal flooding is a threat at the Eastern Shore. The blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere will ensure that any improvement that takes place this weekend will be on the slow side. In fact, showers are possible at just about any time during the day on Saturday and then are likely Saturday night into early Sunday as a cold front crosses the region. Following the frontal passage, bona fide sunshine should return for Mother’s Day afternoon along with a stiffening breeze and temperatures will respond nicely. Looking ahead, next week looks like a warm week; especially, when compared to the past several days, but rain will threaten again by mid-week.
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As colder air pushes towards the east coast from the Upper Midwest, a deep upper-level trough will intensify along the east coast. At the same time, deep upper-level trough will strengthen along the US west coast and strong ridging will pop up across the middle of the country producing the signature of a classic “omega” blocking pattern across the US. Air over Mexico and the Southwest US will be forced to the north into the Northern Plains and then back south again into the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico region by the vast high pressure ridge in the central US. In the Mid-Atlantic region, where we are stuck under a deep upper-level trough, surface low pressure will form just off the coastline later today and then meander around for the next 36 hours or so. The result will be periods of rain in the area both later tonight and Friday and given the prolonged period of onshore flow, this scenario could result in some coastal flooding at the Eastern Shore. The weekend will feature slow improvement given the "omega" blocking pattern. Showers are possible on Saturday and then likely Saturday night/early Sunday as a cold front crosses the region. The sun should break out Sunday afternoon and temperatures will climb to the 70 degrees mark for afternoon highs.
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Weather systems generally move along at a pretty good clip in the mid-latitudes thanks to usually reliable west-to-east winds in the upper part of the atmosphere. Every once in awhile, however, the westerlies become disrupted as a blocking pattern forms in the upper part of the atmosphere. This in turn can lead to the stagnation of surface weather systems with several days of nice weather or several days of poor weather in a given area depending on which part of the upper-air block resides overhead. There are several different types of blocks known to meteorologists and one of these is referred to as the “omega” block since the wind flow pattern in the upper atmosphere resembles the Greek letter by the same name. Indeed, a classic “omega” upper-air blocking pattern is now unfolding across the US and it will soon feature deep upper-level troughs of low pressure along both coasts with strong high-pressure ridging in between. As a result, we’ll be stuck with inclement weather right through Friday and the weekend could also contain some shower activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Our cool, damp unsettled pattern continues right through the work week and even the weekend could have some shower activity to deal with. After occasional showers and drizzle today and tonight, strong surface low pressure will form on Thursday near the east coast and it will meander around for a couple of days given the unfolding classic “omega-shaped” blocking pattern in the upper part of the atmosphere. This coastal storm will produce occasional rain around here on Thursday and Friday and then it will slowly pull away and weaken this weekend. As a result, some sunshine should return to the region on Saturday, but showers cannot be ruled out and a frontal system may bring additional showers on Saturday night and early Sunday.
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Low pressure area is sliding up along the Mid-Atlantic coastline today providing us with more unsettled weather featuring clouds and a few residual showers. After a bit of a lull at mid-week, the latter part of the week may feature strong surface low pressure near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This storm system will likely spin around for a couple of days (Thursday/Friday) as deep upper-level trough forms along the east coast in a classic blocking “omega-shaped” flow pattern in the upper part of the atmosphere. Once this storm system finally pulls away this weekend, it'll turn warmer and the weather will improve noticeably.
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This will be a very unsettled week in the Mid-Atlantic region with multiple chances of rain and numerous low pressure systems will be contributing factors. The latest surface map (not shown) features low pressure sitting just off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Another low pressure system will intensify over the Delmarva Peninsula during the next 12 hours or so and it’ll produce more rain around here from early tonight into Tuesday including the threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms. A third low pressure system will form along the Mid-Atlantic coastline later in the week. That third low pressure system looks like it will meander around for a couple of days (classic "omega" block) as a deep upper-level trough develops along the east coast, and this setup could ultimately result in a strong nor’easter during the late Thursday/Friday time frame. This potential late week nor’easter could bring soaking rains to the I-95 corridor and it could be just cold enough for snowflakes to fly in higher elevation locations from western Pennsylvania to eastern West Virginia.
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