A weak cold front will approach the region later today and it could spark some late day and evening shower and thunderstorm activity. Temperatures should climb into the 90’s today and it’ll stay hot on Friday and Saturday as well and there can even be a few broken records in the I-95 corridor. Along with the heat and humidity, there will be the threat for more shower and thunderstorm activity as we close out the work week and begin the weekend. A stronger cold front arrives late Saturday night and it’ll usher in much more comfortable air to close out the weekend and begin the new week.
Read More
Hermine continues to meander off the Mid-Atlantic coastline as high pressure tries to build into the region. A weak cold frontal system will approach the region tonight and Thursday and while it can spark some shower/thunderstorm activity, it will not prevent temperatures from climbing into the 90’s tomorrow afternoon and the hot weather will continue on Friday and Saturday as well. A stronger cold frontal system will arrive Saturday night and its passage will usher in more comfortable air for the second half of the weekend and the early part of next week.
Read More
The remains of what was once Hurricane Hermine continue to spin off the Mid-Atlantic coastline this morning and it won’t be completely out of our hair until later in the week after it pretty much falls apart. It turned out to be rather nice and comfortable holiday weekend in much of the Mid-Atlantic region thanks to the eastward shift of Hermine early Saturday morning. It’ll turn noticeably hotter for the second half of week with low-to-mid 90's likely on Thursday, Friday and Saturday ahead of a strong frontal passage that comes later in the weekend.
Read More
Hermine continued to move eastward in the overnight hours and it is now well off the Mid-Atlantic coastline with maximum sustained winds at 65 mph near the center. Hermine is classified as a “post-tropical” system and should undergo some intensification tonight and Monday as it turns northward and then northwestward and also slows down. Hermine’s main impact on the New Jersey coastline won’t come until late tonight and Monday as it makes its closest approach. After that, Hermine may meander off the Mid-Atlantic for another day or two before turning northeast again. The overnight shift to the east in the center of the system has dramatically lessened the chances for rain and wind in the Philly metro region, DC is in the clear, and the chances of a loop back to an inland position has all but disappeared.
Read More
Hermine came ashore shortly after midnight in the Florida Panhandle region as a category 1 hurricane and this ended the unprecedented hurricane drought for the state. Florida had not seen a hurricane of any intensity since Wilma struck the southwestern part of the state as a major (category 3) hurricane in October 2005. Hermine is now classified as a “tropical storm” and is located over eastern Georgia with max sustained winds at 50 mph and movement to the NE at 18 mph. Hermine will move northeast over the next 24 hours and then push off the Mid-Atlantic coastline later tomorrow. Once off the coast, Hermine is likely to regain strength - likely back to hurricane status - turn north and gradually slow down to a grinding halt. As a result, Hermine is likely to have a major impact on the coastline from Long Island to SE Virginia in what will turn out to be a long duration event of high winds and heavy rain. Significant rain and wind is also possible during this event back to the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC.
Read More
All eyes continue to be focused on Hermine which made landfall last night as the first hurricane of any intensity to strike Florida since October 2005 (Wilma). Hermine will continue to trek to the northeast over the next 24 hours to a position just off the NC/VA coastline by early Saturday, and then it’ll become intertwined with a frontal boundary zone and increasingly under the control of strong high pressure building across the Northeast US. As a result, Hermine is likely to change course and turn more to the north rather than the northeast and slow-down in its advance - and this is a major cause of concern for the Mid-Atlantic coastline from SE Virginia to Long Island. Also, as it slows down Hermine could actually regain strength as it sits over very warm water off the Mid-Atlantic coastline - perhaps even to hurricane status. Coastal flooding is a serious concern given the expected long period of strong northeast winds which will result from the slow-down of the system that will keep it off the Mid-Atlantic coastline into the early/mid part of next week. Strong winds and heavy rain can be expected along the Mid-Atlantic coastline and significant wind and rain can extend all the way back to the I-95 corridor at times this weekend and early next week. Stay tuned.
Read More
Hermine has become better organized this morning and could very well reach hurricane status by the time it makes landfall tonight in the Florida Panhandle region (just east of Apalachicola). If indeed it makes landfall as a hurricane, it would end an unprecedented hurricane drought for Florida where they haven’t seen a hurricane of any intensity since Wilma struck in October 2005 (3965 days ago). The latest movement is estimated to be north-northeast at around 12 knots with maximum sustained winds at 65 mph. Its central pressure has dropped significantly in the last several hours down to 29.27 inches. The latest satellite image of Hermine is quite impressive with the more familiar circular pattern setting up with respect to the clouds and convection and an “eye” is trying to form – not good news for Florida.
Read More
All eyes are now on “Hermine” which could be the first hurricane of any intensity to strike Florida since October 2005 (Wilma). The latest winds are clocked at 65 mph and it should make landfall later tonight just east of Apalachicola, Florida. After that, it appears "Hermine" will ride up along the coastline of the SE US and then push off the Mid-Atlantic this weekend near the VA/NC border region. At that point, high pressure to the north will begin to play a role in the direction and movement of this system. It is likely to slow down and spin just off the NJ coastline as a strong storm - perhaps even at hurricane status - by around Sunday. Whether its heavy rain and strong winds back inland at this time is still a question, but coastal locations are likely to experience stormy conditions. The rough timetable for the potential wind and rain here from “Hermine” is late Saturday into late Sunday. Stay tuned.
Read More
It has been a long time in the making and still has a long way to go. First, this tropical wave of interest was dubbed “99L” as it slowly moved through the northern Caribbean Sea. Then it became classified as tropical depression (TD) #9 as it slowly continued on a path towards the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico. At 11am, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) has it still officially classified as “TD 9”, but I think it is likely to be classified as a “tropical storm” later today after a visit by hurricane hunter aircraft (would be named Hermine).
TD 9 is likely to undergo intensification over the next 24-36 hours before making landfall along the Florida Panhandle sometime late tomorrow or early tomorrow night. In fact, it is likely that this system will reach hurricane status before making landfall and, if so, this would be the first hurricane of any intensity to reach Florida since October 2005 and that would end an unprecedented streak in the record-keeping era that dates back to the middle 1800’s. Hurricane Wilma came ashore in southwestern Florida during late October of 2005 as a major hurricane and that was not only the last hurricane to hit Florida, but it was also the last major hurricane (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5) to strike U.S. soil in what is another on-going unprecedented streak.
Read More
A strong cold front will approach us from the northwest later today and it’ll give us the best chance in several days for shower and thunderstorm activity tonight and Thursday and some of the rain could be heavy at times. After that, strong high pressure will push in for the late week and weekend with a very comfortable air mass for this time of year. The Labor Day weekend could turn out to be quite nice; however, there is one "fly-in-the-ointment" and that is the tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico. This system will slam into Florida on Thursday - likely as their first hurricane since October 2005 - and then head northeast along the SE US coastline reaching the eastern part of North Carolina by early Saturday. After that, there is an outside chance that strong high pressure to our north prevents this storm from "escaping" into the open Atlantic and all eyes in the Northeast US will have to monitor this closely; especially, along the New England coastline. At a minimum, one can expect rough surf all along the coastline this weekend from all of this tropical activity. Stay tuned.
Read More
