Winter is not quite over yet and there are three threats to monitor in the Mid-Atlantic region for the period from Thursday night through early next week The first wave of low pressure is likely to arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region late Thursday night with only marginally cold air in place, but it’ll actually turn colder during this event. As a result, this late week system is liable to result in a “rain changing to snow” scenario and some grassy snow accumulations are possible in the northern and western suburbs of DC, Philly and NYC. A second and stronger system will take a southern route this weekend and it’ll arrive in the eastern US in the Saturday night/Sunday time frame. This system should have plenty of cold air to work with in the I-95 corridor and snow would likely be the dominant precipitation type; however, it may be suppressed so far to the south that much of the I-95 corridor may escape with little, if any, snowfall. Finally, there is a chance that a third system arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Monday/Tuesday time period of next week and there should be enough cold air in place for the possibility of snow.
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Winter is not over yet and there may be at least a couple of chances for snow in the Mid-Atlantic region later this week and during the upcoming weekend. One of the keys to this unfolding scenario will be a frontal boundary zone that is likely to set up to the south of the Mid-Atlantic region and this will act as a pathway for low pressure systems to ride along. At the same time, strong Arctic high pressure will set up to our north and northwest and this potential combination could lead to an impressive comeback for winter. The first wave of low pressure that could impact the Mid-Atlantic region is likely to ride along the frontal boundary zone and arrive here in the Thursday night/Friday time period; however, this system will not be all that strong and it will have only marginally cold air to work with so the result could be a changeover from rain to snow. Over the weekend, there is potential for a stronger storm and it would likely have colder air to work with as Arctic high pressure will build into SE Canada; however, it is unclear as to how far to the south this storm will track. Currently, the best chance for accumulating snow in the Saturday night/Sunday time period appears to be in the DC metro region and the least chance in NYC - Philly is somewhere in the middle. Stay tuned.
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“It ain’t over till it’s over”. Winter is not over yet and there may be at least a couple of chances for accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region later this week and during the upcoming weekend. One of the keys to this unfolding scenario will be a frontal boundary zone that is likely to set up to the south of the Mid-Atlantic region and this will act as a pathway for low pressure systems to ride along. At the same time, strong Arctic high pressure will set up to our north and northwest and this potential combination could lead to an impressive comeback for winter.
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It’ll turn milder early this week as high pressure shifts off the east coast and then the next cold front crosses the region early Wednesday. A secondary cold front will arrive on Wednesday night and it’ll turn progressively colder late in the week. This frontal boundary zone will stall out near here at the end of the week and several disturbances may ride along and with some serious cold air expected just to our north, wintry precipitation could be the result on more than one occasion going forward.
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There have been scattered snow showers in the Mid-Atlantic region this morning ahead of an Arctic frontal system that is now dropping rapidly southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes and right towards the I-95 corridor. Any of these scattered snow showers can produce a quick burst of snow over the next couple of hours; especially, in areas south of the PA/MD border.
In addition, a solid line of snow showers and embedded heavier snow squalls has developed along this Arctic frontal boundary zone and that is a concern for later today (3-6pm) as it reaches the I-95 corridor; especially, in areas north of the PA/MD border from Philly to New York City. There is a good chance that some of the "frontal zone" heavier snow squalls make it all the way across the Appalachian Mountains and into the immediate metro regions of Philly and NYC - and perhaps as far south as northern Maryland. Low-level lapse rates are steep and very supportive of this type of "snow-burst" activity to survive the trek down the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains and into the immediate I-95 corridor. Any burst of heavier snow today can cause a quick reduction in visibility and a coating on grassy surfaces.
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A fast-moving (“clipper”) low pressure system will cross the Mid-Atlantic region today and generate snow showers in the DC, Philly, NYC corridor. There is even the chance for a heavier burst of snow which could produce a quick grassy accumulation in some spots. Once this system passes off the east coast late today, it'll turn windy once again and very cold air for this time of year will flood into the Mid-Atlantic and stick around right through the weekend. In fact, many areas in the DC metro region will experience low temperatures near the 20 degree mark over the weekend.
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A strong cold front passed through the region in the overnight hours and ushered in much cooler air for the region as well as powerful winds which can gust up to 50 mph this morning. Winds diminish this afternoon and attention will then turn upstream to a fast-moving (i.e., “clipper”) system. This system will drop southeastward across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and likely generate some snow shower activity in the area. The snow can be mixed with rain at times, but it is also not out of the question that there be some small grassy accumulations. Another shot of quite cold air will follow the “clipper” for the weekend - 20's for lows - and then temperatures will moderate early next week.
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March is starting off on a very active note with the threat for severe weather coming to the I-95 corridor this afternoon and possible “clipper” snow early Friday. Today’s threat comes from the combination of an approaching strong cold frontal system plowing towards the east coast, strong upper-level winds and vigorous energy, and an unusually warm, humid air mass at low-levels of the atmosphere. The severe weather threat this afternoon is greatest in those areas that are currently seeing some sunshine poking through the clouds (e.g., DC metro region) as this will act to destabilize the lower atmosphere. The main threat this afternoon will be damaging wind gusts of up to 65 mph or so, however, just as was the case last Saturday, there is the chance for hail and a few isolated tornadoes; primarily, south of the PA/MD border. After a very windy and colder day on Thursday, a “clipper” system is likely to generate some snow in the Mid-Atlantic region early Friday and there can even be some small accumulations; primarily, north of the PA/MD border.
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The warm up that began yesterday will continue today as high temperatures climb to the 75 degree mark in the DC metro region. Unfortunately, this warm up will be accompanied by occasional showers and thunderstorms as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. In fact, some of the storms that form later today can be on the strong-to-severe side with damaging wind gusts the main weather threat. It’ll turn colder and very windy late tonight and tomorrow following the passage of the cold front and then we’ll have to watch a “clipper” system which could throw some light snow our way early Friday. A reinforcing shot of cold air will follow the “clipper” system for the early part of the weekend and then some modification in temperatures will take place early next week.
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There could be a repeat performance on Wednesday of the strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity that was experienced in the Mid-Atlantic region this past Saturday. In similar fashion to Saturday, temperatures will surge to record or near record levels on Wednesday and a powerful cold front will close in from the northwest. This type of clash between spring warmth and winter cold resulted in numerous damaging wind reports on Saturday in the I-95 corridor along with a few isolated tornadoes - and the same scenario can take place later tomorrow all the way from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Tennessee Valley.
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