A cold front passed through the region on Tuesday and it’ll stay chilly around here through Friday, but only moderately so as compared to the more severe cold that we experienced quite often in recent weeks. It’ll turn milder this weekend and with the warm up will come an increasing chance for showers. The best chance for showers is likely to come during the second half of the weekend before another (moderate) cool down arrives for the early part of next week. Looking ahead, there are signs for an extended period of colder-than-normal weather to return to the eastern US during February following this temporary stretch of milder weather.
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We are now experiencing warmer-than-normal weather conditions in the eastern US and there will be mild spells right into the first week of February, but the signs are increasing for a return to a cold pattern next month and it may very well last for an extended period of time. The MJO is a tropical disturbance that propagates around the global tropics and it will be transitioning into “phases” during the month of February that are conducive to colder-than-normal weather in the eastern US. In addition, stratospheric warming will unfold over the next week or so in the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere and this can set off a chain of events in the atmosphere that ultimately results in colder-than-normal weather for the eastern US. There are other signals as well that support the notion of a return to colder-than-normal in the eastern US and it very well could stick around for awhile.
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Low pressure will push to our north today and it’ll drag a strong cold front through the region during the afternoon hours. Occasional showers will linger into the afternoon hours and there may be a thunderstorm or two mixed in. Strong NW winds later tonight and tomorrow will usher in a colder air mass, but it will be moderately cold and not the severe cold that we have experienced many times in recent weeks. The three days from Wednesday through Friday will stay on the chilly side, but it’ll then turn warmer again this weekend and with the warm up will likely come another round of rainfall.
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A strong cold front will approach the region later today and rain will be the result with light rain or drizzle at times today and early tonight and then heavier showers are likely late tonight into early Tuesday, perhaps with a thunderstorm. It’ll turn colder tomorrow night and Wednesday, but this cold air outbreak will only be a three day affair and the cold will be moderate and not severe. Another significant warm up is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend.
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The month of January has been much colder-than-normal so far in the central and eastern US, but there are strong indications that we are about to enter a warmer pattern that may last for the next two-to-three weeks. This does not mean that each and every day going forward in this stretch will be warmer-than-normal and there will continue to be cold air outbreaks, but the cold air outbreaks should be relatively short-lived compared to recent weeks and it'll likely average above-normal for each 5-day period going forward into the first week of February. The latest forecast of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is supportive of the idea for an extended period of warmer weather in the central and eastern US. Looking beyond this extended warmer stretch; however, the MJO longer-range outlook and a comparison to some analog years, suggest that a colder pattern is likely to return in February and it could very well stick around for awhile.
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High pressure will move offshore over the next 24 hours and this will allow for milder air to push into the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and we’ll reach well into the 50’s for highs on both weekend days and into the early part of next week. A cold front will approach the region early next week and bring us the likelihood for some rain later Monday into Tuesday. Following the cold frontal passage, colder air will return at mid-week, but it looks to be only moderately cold and not bitter cold as in recent cold air outbreaks.
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High pressure will build into the region through the end of the week and then move offshore this weekend. This shift to an offshore position will allow for milder air to push into the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and we’ll reach the 50’s for highs on both weekend days. A cold front will approach early next week and bring us the chance for rain showers and then it’ll turn moderately colder by mid-week.
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Low pressure is intensifying off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning and throwing some snow back into the I-95 corridor. This system will move away rather quickly later today and the snow will cease and another cold air mass will settle in for the next couple of days. A noticeable warm up will begin at the end of the work week and intensify this weekend with high temperatures by Sunday in the low-to-mid 50’s in the DC metro region. This warm up is quite likely to extend into next week as well with rain showers possible by later Monday or Tuesday.
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An accumulating snow event is coming to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from late tonight into tomorrow morning and there can be some problems with the Wednesday AM commute in all three metro regions. Cold air will stick around following this snow event for the latter part of the work week, but a noticeable warm up will take place this weekend and continue into next week.
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Upper-level energy will slide across the Midwest today and into the eastern US and will contribute to the formation of low pressure near the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early tomorrow. Meanwhile, a cold front will also play an important role in this upcoming snow event as it will slow down as it arrives in the eastern US late today as it will become aligned parallel to the upper-level wind flow (southwest-to-northeast). As a result, snow associated with the frontal system will tend to last for an extended period of time tonight and then low pressure induced snow will fall early tomorrow. The combination of the front and low pressure system should generate a coating to two inches inches of accumulating snow in the DC metro region. The timetable for the snow is primarily from late tonight into tomorrow morning with some impact possible for the Wednesday AM commute. It'll stay cold following this system for the latter part of the work week with a reinforcing cold air mass ushered in by the frontal passage, but then a noticeable warm up will occur this weekend.
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