It has been very dry in recent months across the DC metro region and drier-than-normal in the Philly and NYC metro regions, but a soaking rainfall is headed this way for the upcoming weekend and that, combined with rains earlier this week, should help alleviate some of the dry conditions in the area. Moisture-laden low pressure will slowly ride up along a frontal boundary zone this weekend from Texas to the Northeast US and by the time the weekend ends, many spots in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor could have received two or more inches of rainfall.
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Low pressure has pushed away from the region and high pressure will take control with cold, breezy and dry conditions. Temperatures will struggle to reach the middle 30’s for afternoon highs, but we’ll begin to turn milder on Friday and then even warmer this weekend. Unfortunately, the weekend warm up will coincide with some rain later Saturday into Sunday.
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The rain is already beginning to wind down in the DC metro region and will do so over the next few hours in Philly and NYC, but our troubles may not be completely over at that point in time. Temperatures will drop quite a bit in the overnight hours and any standing water that remains on untreated surfaces will freeze later tonight with low-to-mid 20’s likely by the early morning hours. The prospect of isolated areas of black ice late tonight could even result in more of the now widely utilized "2-hour school delay" for Thursday.
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One of the ways to monitor the potential for wintertime Arctic air outbreaks in the central and eastern U.S. is to follow what is happening in the stratosphere over the Northern Hemisphere. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are large, rapid temperature rises in the winter polar stratosphere, occurring primarily in the Northern Hemisphere, and these events have been found to set off a chain of events in the atmosphere that ultimately can lead to Arctic air outbreaks for the central and eastern US that drop southward from northern Canada. Indeed, there is a significant stratospheric warming event now unfolding that will soon result in a dominant polar vortex center over North America - somewhat similar to a major SSW event that took place in January 1985. In that particular year, the major SSW event was soon followed by a period of extreme cold in the central and eastern US.
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Low pressure will move from southwest-to-northeast today parallel to Route I-95 and this will allow for some milder air to push in from off the ocean changing any frozen precipitation this morning to plain rain for the afternoon hours. Before the changeover takes place, there can be some slippery spots on untreated surfaces this morning and a coating of ice is possible to the north and west of the District. After the rain winds down early tonight, temperatures will drop well down in the 20’s and black ice can form in the wee hours of the morning on untreated surfaces. Thursday promises to be a cold, breezy and cold day with temperatures struggling to reach the middle 30’s.
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The overall weather pattern is not too different from what we saw on Sunday and a combination of snow, ice and rain is headed to the I-95 corridor for Wednesday. Low pressure will slide from southwest-to-northeast on Wednesday just to the northwest of the I-95 corridor and given that track, milder air should push in off the ocean to change any AM frozen precipitation to plain rain for the PM hours. There will likely be some snow accumulation early tomorrow throughout the Philly and NYC metro regions and perhaps a coating in the northern and western suburbs of DC. Black ice is a threat for late tomorrow night/early Thursday as temperatures will drop well below freezing in the overnight hours following the PM rainfall.
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Low pressure will move close by on Wednesday from southwest-to-northeast and a combination of snow, ice and rain is likely once again in the I-95 corridor. Snow or a wintry mix is likely to arrive late tonight and a wintry mix is likely to continue for awhile in the morning before a changeover to plain rain for the afternoon. Small accumulations of snow and ice are possible before the changeover to rain and there can be some slippery spots. Rain winds down tomorrow evening and watch out for black ice late tomorrow night/early Thursday as temperatures will drop well below freezing.
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Super Bowl Sunday featured a combination of snow, ice and rain and we may have something somewhat similar to this on Wednesday, but in this case there may be a bit more snow on the front end in areas north of the PA/MD border. Low pressure will move southwest-to-northeast during the day and frozen precipitation is possible at the front end of this event and can’t be ruled out on the back end as well with plain rain likely in between.
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High pressure will build into the region today and it’ll stay in control into mid-week. Temperatures will stay on the cold side today with highs confined to the 30’s and then not as cold on Tuesday ahead of our next system. Attention will turn to our southwest by tomorrow night as moisture will be heading in this direction. Precipitation is likely here on Wednesday and it may be a repeat performance of Sunday with a wintry mix for part of the time and then plain rain. Cold and dry weather is likely to follow for the latter half of the work week.
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Super Bowl Sunday is, of course, an extra special big deal this year around this part of the nation and lots of people have travel plans and, unfortunately, the weather will be a factor for at least part of the day. Moisture will arrive on Sunday morning and it’ll be cold enough at the lowest levels of the atmosphere for some icing (sleet, freezing rain) to take place; especially, to the north and west of the big cities. The threat for frozen precipitation is greatest in the morning, mid-day and perhaps early afternoon hours with plain rain more likely by late in the day.
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